New Year 2017 issue:
references
Government & EU plans, May speech “The
government's negotiating objectives for exiting the EU”
Compare
with Brexit Secretary David Davis earlier on government negotiating objectives
“…to
bring back control of our laws to Parliament; to bring back control of
decisions over immigration to the United Kingdom; to maintain the strong
security co-operation we have with the EU; and to establish the freest possible
market in goods and services with the EU and the rest of the world.”
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-commons-statement-on-the-european-council-24-oct-2016
A deal
that will give British companies the maximum freedom to trade with and operate
in the European market – and allow European businesses to do the same here. A
deal that will deliver the deepest possible co-operation to ensure our national
security and the security of our allies. A deal that is in Britain’s interests
– and the interests of all our European partners.
[Former
diplomat Peter Ricketts] "I worked closely with the current prime minister
on the difficult issue of Calais, when she was home secretary and I was
ambassador in Paris. I know that she wants to be given the full picture, that
she listens carefully to advice and takes it seriously.
May has
ruled out further speeches in the name of protecting Britain’s negotiating
position.
http://www.politico.eu/article/david-davis-no-brexit-details-until-february/
Mr
Davis revealed that the Government's plan for Brexit will not be published
before February
https://politicsmeanspolitics.com/2017/01/19/theresa-mays-brexit-how-europe-reacted/
the EU 27 heads of state
and government are to meet on February 3 to discuss a common Brexit strategy.
Trade issues, including free movement of
labour
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/brexit-unlikely-disrupt-uk-trade-says-wto-director-general-1588422
In an
interview with Sky News, the WTO boss said he was not of the opinion that the
Brexit vote was "anti-trade" and added that the UK would not suffer
trade setbacks during or after its negotiations with the EU.
Two
agreements or one needed? – compare the view in ‘Brexit How do we do it?’
Until
now it has been unclear whether the 2-year period is restricted to the
essential “housekeeping” aspects of withdrawal, or whether the reference to a
future framework means that it can also accommodate substantive negotiations on
future relations.
Impartial
summary of the complexities involved
Michael
Johnson is a former trade negotiator for the UK government and advises on
international trade policy.
The
Secretary of State for International Trade, Liam Fox, announced on December 5
that at the point of Brexit the UK intends to submit to the WTO schedules which
replicate as far as possible its current obligations as an EU member
state. This announcement was denounced
in some quarters as a climbdown by the UK government from its aim of
establishing an independent trade policy.
In fact it was the only practicable course of action, to avoid what
could otherwise be a cripplingly difficult task for UK trade officials and
negotiators extending over many years and involving years of uncertainty for
both UK and foreign traders.
...
Under
GATS, members decide at their own discretion what market access commitments for
services to inscribe in their schedules but once they have done so those
commitments are bound. If due notice is
given to the WTO, a commitment may be withdrawn or reduced, but in this case
also another member whose traders are adversely affected by the change can
demand to negotiate for balancing compensation or, failing agreement on that,
can request arbitration. The GATS
requires that in such cases the overall level of market protection should not
be increased. If the UK proposed to
adopt new services schedules which reduced current levels of market access,
many WTO partner countries would have the right to demand consultations and
possible negotiations.
http://www.cityam.com/253881/london-unlikely-lose-out-euro-clearing-post-brexit-finds
http://www.cityam.com/249069/philip-hammond-has-warned-against-attempts-lure-key
“Most of the people that I am talking to do not believe that you can break
off bits of the clearing system. Most of them do
not believe that you could persuade clearing to go to any place where it
doesn’t want naturally to go and that, actually, after London probably the most
likely destination for clearing operations would be New York,” Hammond said.
“Not Paris or Frankfurt or Dublin or Amsterdam, but New York. And that anything
that split clearing up, or tried to force it relocate, would simply force up
the cost of clearing with a huge cost to the European economy as a whole.”
http://www.cityam.com/a/nil-points-why-boring-dublin-and-provincial-frankfurt-wont
http://www.cityam.com/257629/luxembourg-doesnt-want-steal-londons-finance-crown
http://www.cityam.com/256044/london-wont-lose-its-status-leading-finance-and-legal
http://www.cityam.com/248893/london-backed-retain-world-beating-status-city-opportunity
http://www.cityam.com/255393/dublin-quietly-winning-over-financial-hearts-brexit-battle
The Irish city has been reported to be less interested in
the big banks, possibly as it is still dealing with the hangover of the
financial crisis.
However, Dublin is not without its faults and will need
to do some work to fend off the likes of Luxembourg. The city’s infrastructure
is not as strong as it could be, and some have questioned whether the country
has the capacity to deal with a sudden influx of business and staff.
http://www.cityam.com/255325/editors-notes-calm-down-banks-not-run-european-hills
“Paris
or Frankfurt will do little more than provide out-posts for those hedging their
‘passporting’ bets.”
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-city-idUKKCN12B0G9
http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-banks-could-sue-eu-say-lawyers
A document,
drawn up by three of the U.K.’s largest law firms — Linklaters,
Freshfields and Clifford Chance — suggests banks
based in the U.K. have a legitimate legal right to retaining so-called
passporting rights and continuing to operate across the EU after Britain leaves
the bloc.
http://www.cityam.com/assets/uploads/content/2016/10/cityam-2016-10-21-58095e5d8ae4b.pdf
Berlin
not really tailored for Fintech
http://www.cityam.com/257084/city-eyes-best-possible-access-europes-single-market
(http://www.cityam.com/256817/bank-england-governor-mark-carney-reaffirms-brexit-not
)
The
comments echo those made by the Bank of England governor last week, with Mark
Carney telling the influential Treasury Select Committee a badly constructed
Brexit deal with no transition period “would be greater for Europe than the
UK”.
Identifying
“a change in the climate of opinion”, Mandelson said: “The commission is
already giving member states greater control over social security payments to
EU migrants. There may be support for EU-wide brake on number of migrants
entering countries for specific periods
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/european-council/role-setting-eu-political-agenda/
Strategic
Agenda, 2014, EUCO 79/14
(27.6.14)
http://register.consilium.europa.eu/doc/srv?l=EN&f=ST%2079%202014%20INIT#page=15
(complete negotiations on international trade agreements, in
a spirit of mutual and reciprocal benefit and transparency,)
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/
“The EU
is firmly committed to the promotion of open and fair trade with all its
trading partners.”
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2016/september/tradoc_154971.doc.pdf
EU
aspirations to increase its share of services trade
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/cfm/doclib_section.cfm?sec=176
EU
proposal on State-to-State Dispute Settlement
(3.10.16)
This
proposal aims at establishing an effective and efficient state-to-state
mechanism for resolving any disputes between TiSA
Parties on the interpretation and application of TiSA.
The text is largely based on the WTO Dispute Settlement Understanding and does
not jeopardise the future multilateralization of the Agreement.
Arbitration
body ICSID mentioned in
http://www.williamdartmouth.com/docs/Out_Of_The_EU_and_into_the_world.pdf
Malmstrom
– previous view only recently reversed!
In remarks which will have been closely watched in London
top eurocrat Cecilia
Malmstrom insisted the bloc will look to strike a fresh economic pact with the
UK as soon as possible. The Swedish EU trade commissioner said that a new
relationship with Britain should only take "a couple of years" to
complete and calmed nerves with a promise to seek a transitional accord to
prevent any turbulence. Asked how long it would take to strike such a pact, she
replied: "It's hard to say but it takes a couple of years depending on
what you want to be in it and how the mandate looks like. But it will not be
over a weekend, no." Ms Malmstrom said she
expected London and Brussels to negotiate a transitional agreement which will
maintain economic ties for the entire time it takes to negotiate a fresh trade
relationship. And she said that whilst the EU is "busy"
negotiating "16 or 17" trade deals at the moment, it will not be the
case that Britain will be bottom of any queue for a future agreement.
http://www.bilaterals.org/?eu-commissioner-says-brexit
Britain
will not be able to start talks on a new trade arrangement with the EU until
other aspects of its exit have been settled, the trade commissioner, Cecilia
Malmström has said. “There are actually two negotiations. First you exit, and
then you negotiate the new relationship, whatever that is,” she said. Between
Brexit and the signing of any new trade deal, business between the UK and EU
would be conducted under World Trade Organisation rules, she told BBC’s Newsnight. She acknowledged that could damage businesses
and economies within the UK and remaining members of the EU, but said: “Yes,
but the vote was very clear.”
Back
of the queue?
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-trade-europe-malmstrom-idUKKCN0XT1MB
She
declined to say that Britain would not be a priority in trade talks but suggested
that the EU already had its hands full with other negotiations
[Juncker] the UK will have to
be considered a third country
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/736724/brexit-ilse-aigner-warns-angela-merkel-trade-deal-economy
"the EU is rarely the difficult partner."
Chairman
of Toyota optimistic that Toyota can stay in the UK.
http://www.williamdartmouth.com/docs/Out_Of_The_EU_and_into_the_world.pdf
“Out of the EU, Into the World”, 2014 (first edition)
William
Dartmouth MEP, EFD Coordinator on International Trade Committee
“Addendum on the threat to UK legal services from the
EU
218 However,
there is a major threat pending from the EU to the UK‘s success story in legal
services.
219 The EU
seeks to create EU commercial laws and an EU Commercial Court. This is in the
name of ‘harmonisation’. It is intended that EU laws and the EU Commercial
court will be established not in competition with national jurisdictions but,
as compulsorily replacements. This is the Stockholm programme.”
EU political groups: votes and quotes
Assumptions
on voting formula – Brexit proposals will be from the Commission and no EU27
state will have its vote suspended.
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/voting-system/qualified-majority/
Special
cases
When
not all Council members participate in the vote, for example due to an opt-out
in certain policy areas, a decision is adopted if 55% of the participating
Council members, representing at least 65% of the population of the
participating member states, vote in favour.
Andrew Lewer MEP sees a slightly different formula in ‘Brexit How
do we do it?’
EU
parties and groups, EU population statistics
http://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries_en
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Council
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/portal/en
http://www.epp.eu/about-us/leaders/
Bloomberg
reports on national aspirations and possible tactics
Various
EU goodwill
http://accesswdun.com/article/2017/1/491703
http://www.epp.eu/files/uploads/2015/09/Platform2012_EN1.pdf
2012
Platform (p14)
138.
...Markets must work as freely as possible and unfair practices and
protectionist measures against free competition and free trade need to be done
away with.
[EPP] McAllister,
who has a British father and is the former PM of the German state of Lower
Saxony for Angela Merkel’s CDU party, is the German Chancellor’s ‘Brexit man’
in the European Parliament. …In this exclusive interview with Open Europe,
McAllister makes clear that, at this stage, he sees a Free Trade Agreement as
the most likely outcome of the negotiations….The UK is asking for this divorce.
We are not eager to punish Britain nor are we eager to give it a favourable
treatment.”
The
S&D Group will work for solutions that are mutually beneficial for both EU
and UK citizens.
Helga
Stevens for ECR group
“My
belief is what we need to do is a fair deal which benefits both of us.
“The UK
will still exist, still be part of Europe so we need to make an effort to make
sure there’s a win-win situation.”
http://ecrgroup.eu/ecr-policies/ideas-for-reform/
The
ECR, as a group that supports free and open trade as stated in the founding
principles of its Prague declaration…
http://www.aldeparty.eu/en/values/market-economics
European
liberal democrats believe in an economy that is based on market principles
where individual economic and political freedoms are guaranteed as the most
effective system for ensuring future prosperity, encouraging competiveness and
ensuring longer-term employment. Therefore, the ALDE Party has consistently
been promoting free trade and a fully functioning European Single Market for
the benefit of consumers and small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs).
http://policycenter.eldr.eu/WebSites/UploadFolder/1/CMS/Files/Expose_EU_Single_Market_Economy(1).pdf
http://www.aldeparty.eu/en/news/alde-party-congress-adopts-resolutions-brexit-ukraine-womens-rights
On the
consequences of UK referendum on Brexit, the ALDE Party calls for "the
negotiating parties to pursue a prudent and pragmatic approach, seeking a
balanced deal for both the EU and the UK, which does not introduce any
unnecessary barriers to trade and mobility and which ensures that a strong
partnership remains" and "to ensure that the negotiations, which will
start once article 50 is triggered, are conducted in a fair way."
Particularly, the resolution emphasises the importance of "efforts to
minimise adverse impacts of Brexit on individual citizens, including those on
free movement rights (of goods, persons, services and capital), which are core
values of the EU."
Europhile propaganda and rebuttal
AC
Grayling
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/referendum-result-leave-23rd-june-brexit
http://www.cityam.com/257437/editors-notes-brexit-debate-has-given-us-some-tragic-and
Professor
Nicholas Boyle, who this week branded 17m Leave voters “the lager louts of
Europe”. The Cambridge prof says Leave voters were just “ruffians and vandals”
and the referendum result does not, therefore, deserve to be respected. Charming.
Gutter
propaganda masquerading as journalism
IMF
Readers
pile in with hostile comments.
(On 24.11.16
the Standard’s Jonathan Prynn said that Stamp Duty was
overwhelmingly the factor)
Amazing
claims, not exactly shared by Swedes
http://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/nick-booth-remoaners-not-finished-grief-cycle/
[PierrePendre] The Guardian was so confident of the accuracy
of its story about abused Swedes that it disallowed comments, presumably to
prevent any fake dissent. Don't want anyone blurring the message with criticism
from the real world. In fact, the Guardian almost never allows its readers to
comment on its Brexit coverage although they are surely all loyal Remainers
keen to eat up everything they're told.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38663537
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38675073
Banks “London
jobs could be hit by Brexit.” “preparing to move 1,000 staff from London to Paris”.
HSBC
bank “in no rush” to move.
[Jes Staley, Barclays] "I don't believe that the
financial centre of Europe will leave the city of London. There are all sorts
of reasons why I think the UK will continue to be the financial lungs for
Europe"
http://www.politico.eu/article/us-banks-lay-groundwork-to-leave-london-reluctantly/
Speculative! Citi did not respond to requests for comment
while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley declined to elaborate on their plans.
“institutions are sitting tight for now and are instead just
devising contingency plans for the worst.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36897179
General
https://www.netwealth.com/OurViews/2017/1/18/clean-brexit-best-for-new-global-britain
[Gerard
Lyons] A Clean Brexit means a clean break, under our complete control…
http://www.cityam.com/257082/philip-hammond-offers-hard-truths-germans-
Hammond
rules out staying in the EU.
Pascal Lamy, the former EU trade commissioner and former director
general of the World Trade Organisation, said the Government's Brexit plan was
a ruse and the country would stay in the EU.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/19/europe/cnn-brexit-poll/index.html
Majority
47%-45% for Leave.
https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/a-year-of-turmoil-breeds-pessimism-and-fear-661285?0d12
Majority
of Brits would vote to leave the EU if there was a second referendum, according
to a new poll. Forty-four percent were in favor of
Brexit, with 43 percent wanting to stay in the bloc, according to the YouGov/Handelsblatt.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Cover-Page-BMG-Methodology-Sheet-031116.pdf
BMG
poll - seems to underweight Conservative voters and Don't Votes more than
average in the final sample.
http://order-order.com/2017/01/06/brexit-support-soars-among-over-50s/
Saga
poll
This
page updated: 26 Jan 2017