New Year 2019 issue: references, notes and
quotes.
Worth also reading alongside Autumn 2018 issue and references.
Index
Withdrawal
Agreement - key documents
Withdrawal Agreement –
commentaries on how bad it is
EU negotiations in good faith?
Other evidence that the deal would
be illegal
Safeguards on ending the Northern
Ireland backstop
Review of preparations. Concept of
'managed glide path'
Possibilities for the ‘Meaningful
Vote’
Prospects for a second referendum
Public support for Brexit or a
second referendum
Danger of an extended transition
Possible later escape from May's
deal. International law angle
-------------------------
Draft
agreement on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU as agreed at negotiators'
level on 14 November 2018, including text of Article 132 (26 Nov 2018)
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/37095/draft_withdrawal_agreement_incl_art132.pdf
(14
Nov 2018 early draft https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf)
Political
Declaration on Future Relationship draft (non-binding)
The
Attorney-General's advice from 13 Nov 2018 doesn't tell us much we haven't
already heard. There were two paragraphs of interest, though.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/exiting-the-eu-publication-of-legal-advice
(10.)
Allegedly GB ‘not bound by’ CJEU or Commission over legal obligations in ‘level
playing field’ areas such as environment, labour, social legislation) - there
is separate Commission involvement on state aid, competition.
This
would have to be reconciled with the CJEU's rights to adjudicate over points of
law, and the arbitrators would have to take this into account. However it is
likely that both the UK and EU are bound by wider WTO rules on state aid.
(18.)
Some doubt whether the NI Protocol
is consistent with EU law.
Briefings
For Brexit
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/the-seven-deadly-sins-in-the-draft-withdrawal-agreement/
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/mays-deal-means-the-eu-can-wreck-british-farming/
UKIP
https://www.ukip.org/pdf/UKIP_eu_withdrawal_agreement.pdf
European
Research Group
https://brexitcentral.com/erg-publish-right-know-case-governments-brexit-deal/
Dr
Lee Rotherham, the Red Cell (first impressions)
https://brexitcentral.com/nasty-surprises-smallprint-theresa-mays-brexit-deal/
EU
Referendum blog
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87055
David
Blake, Professor of Economics at the Cass Business School.
Was
the Withdrawal Agreement drafted by civil servants seeking to make remaining in
the EU look attractive?
Leadsom
support - but with reservations
Daniel
Hannan MEP
Juncker:
the deal/No Deal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46339623
May-Juncker
photo, seen on Express, 1 Jan 2019, on
Explainers
on Draft Withdrawal Agreement
Commons
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8453
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8453/CBP-8453.pdf
Lords
pack
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/LLN-2018-0139
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/LLN-2018-0139/LLN-2018-0139.pdf
Government
spin
https://brexitdealexplained.campaign.gov.uk/
6
videos, several quotes and links (e.g. explainers)
Advertised
on internet media. (e.g. Brexit Deal Explained advert, seen in The Sun, 6 Dec
2018)
https://brexitfacts.blog.gov.uk/
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-splurge-more-50k-promoting-13690399
Downing
Street has spent more than £50,000 over the past three months promoting Theresa
May's Brexit deal on social media. The Prime Minister was accused of throwing
taxpayers' money "down the drain" by Liberal Democrat MP Layla Moran,
who obtained the figures with a parliamentary question. No details were given
of how the money was spent, but a series of clips promoting the deal have been
released on the theresa-may and 10DowningStreet Twitter feeds and the Prime
Minister's Facebook page with the hashtag #BackTheBrexitDeal.
Releasing
the figures in a written reply, Cabinet Office Minister Chloe Smith stressed
that the £52,509 spend amounted to less than 0.02% of the total Government
communications budget of £300 million a year. Ms Moran, a supporter of the Best
For Britain campaign for a second EU referendum, said: "It beggars belief
that the Prime Minister is spending over £50,000 of taxpayers' money promoting
a deal that literally no-one wants.”
PQ
speculating on cost of propaganda. £100,000? Dodged by PM.
(Seema
Malhotra MP, 10 Dec 2018)
Mail
hyping 'public support' for May's sell-out deal
One
reader, 'SGT, commented:
It's
funny that if you read the poll on Survation's website, it says that 49%
totally oppose the deal and only 27% support it, this really is fake news.
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/selling-a-sellout-the-truth-about-the-pms-deal-with-brussels/
UN
Charter 1945
http://www.un.org/en/documents/charter/index.shtml
(Article1)
2.
To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle
of equal rights and self-determination of peoples,
(Article2)
2.
All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits
resulting from membership, shall fulfil in good faith the obligations assumed
by them in accordance with the present Charter.
Agreed
interpretation via UN Resolution 2625, via the adoption of the Declaration on
Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Co-operation
among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
http://legal.un.org/avl/ha/dpilfrcscun/dpilfrcscun.html
"No
State may use or encourage the use of economic, political or other types or measures
to coerce another State in order to obtain from it the subordination of the
exercise of its sovereign rights or to secure from it advantages of any
kind."
Resolution
adopted text (PDF)
http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/2625(XXV)
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/
“The
EU is firmly committed to the promotion of open and fair trade with all its
trading partners.
Commitment
to "ambitious, balanced and comprehensive free trade agreements"
https://www.eu2017.ee/sites/default/files/2017-06/Trio%20programme.pdf
G20
Leaders' agreement (2016),
http://www.g20chn.org/English/Documents/Current/201609/t20160906_3395.html
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-16-2967_en.htm
...
commit to enhance an open world economy by working towards trade and investment
facilitation and liberalization. ... We reiterate our opposition to
protectionism on trade and investment in all its forms.”
Nick
de Bois, aide to Dominic Raab when Brexit Secretary
“Ensuring
continuity of supply and services has been the cornerstone of preparedness for
No Deal, which is why the U.K has stated, for example, that it will recognise
EU product and safety standards and recognise professional qualifications – so
that we can continue to benefit from EU imports, logistics, skills and services
from our neighbours. It remains to be seen if these moves will be reciprocated.
At
the time I left the department, the EU refused to let UK officials engage
widely with member states or the Commission to mutually agree sensible steps to
ensure minimum disruption in the event of No Deal. The work has been done on our side: it would be
a wholly malicious move by the EU not to reciprocate now as No Deal looms.”
“The
27 other EU countries and the Commission are therefore pursuing a delicate
tactic: they are refusing London's offer to work together to prepare for the
failure of the negotiations, thereby deliberately risking devastating
consequences in the event of a no-deal Brexit. This pressure, so the calculus,
could help the negotiations succeed.”
Prof.
Dr. Franklin Dehousse, Professor in EU law at the University of Liège
EUROPEAN
Union negotiators have left themselves open to a potential crisis with their
handling of the Brexit talks, according to former EU judge Franklin Dehousse.
Using
Sun Tsu’s ‘Art of War’ to analyse EU tactics, Mr Dehousse says “appetite for
short term political gains play a role” in mistakes by officials.
Arguing
about the “dangerous precedents for Article 50”, he adds: “From the beginning,
the EU has perceived clearly the need to protect its institutions and policies.
“It
is all the more indispensable that any concession to the UK will be invoked as
a precedent, in the EU relationship with all other external partners.
“The
same perception alas did not materialise about the need to maintain a balanced
approach in the implementation of Article 50.”
...
“According
to the principles of international law, this provision must be applied in good
faith by all partners. The UK cannot create conditions that will destabilise
the EU while it leaves
“The
EU cannot impose conditions that will make the UK exit factually impossible, or
extremely difficult. This is very important for the EU and UK’s future, and
also their future relationship.
Original
articles by Dehousse
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chaotic-deal-brexit-threatening-why-european-union-must-dehousse/
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/sun-tsu-brexit-how-brexiteers-turned-total-strategic-mess-dehousse
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/sun-tsu-brexit-ii-european-union-from-technical-myopia-dehousse
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/sun-tsu-brexit-iii-after-bad-strategic-choices-day-always-dehousse
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/eu-should-compromise-some-aspects-brexit-negotiation-cannot-dehousse
Selmayr
https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1064175839691120641
@IainDale
Follow
Follow @IainDale
Jawdrop
moment from the Sunday papers...
"Dominic
Raab was told by British diplomats that Martin Selmayr had boasted that losing
Northern Ireland would be the "price" Britain has to pay for
Brexit."
The
Beast of Brussels strikes again. And under the 'deal', he'll get his wish.
Weber
https://www.politico.eu/article/winners-and-losers-from-conservatives-helsinki-lovefest/
Manfred
Weber: The little-known German leader of the EPP group in the European
Parliament took the big prize, crowned Spitzenkandidat, which immediately makes
him both the front-runner to be the next European Commission president, and the
public face of the EU’s dominant, center-right political machine
...
Weber
declared that Britain must pay a demonstrable political price for leaving the
EU.
...
Michel
Barnier: The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator was feted as much as the U.K. was
vilified. He had a seat of honor: the very first chair in the very first row.
And he came in for repeated praise from Weber, Stubb and other speakers.
Sovereignty,
Territoriality and Human Rights
The
EU committed to the Barcelona Declaration in 1995.
http://eeas.europa.eu/archives/docs/euromed/docs/bd_en.pdf
This
promised to respect national territory and borders without interference. Such
interference would also be against the UN Charter - that prohibits political
bullying to deter the exercise of sovereignty – and is binding on all EU
members.
There
is no get-out from the UN Charter taking priority over other international
agreements.
www.newalliance.org.uk/annex218.htm
www.newalliance.org.uk/ref1018.htm (‘Other International Agreements’)
In
insisting that the imminent relationship is only decided as per the Withdrawal
Agreement, the EU is effectively demanding that our 'rights' are decided by its
own ECJ and denying us access to the UN International Court of Justice.
https://www.ukip.org/pdf/UKIP_eu_withdrawal_agreement.pdf
This
would go against a fundamental norm or principle of international law.
Illegality
has just been raised on similar grounds by Martin Parsons, who also observed a
human rights dimension. He felt that the WA could be subject to a Judicial
Review or a personal appeal.
Northern
Ireland/backstop specifics
The
‘Northern Ireland backstop’ is a ‘future relationship contingency’. It should
not ever have been part of a withdrawal agreement legally covering more
immediate formalities. Its operational justification is on thin grounds and it
seems to have been used mainly as a coercive measure, against both the spirit
and the letter of the UN Charter, that requires dealings between parties to be
amicable.
Paul
Goodman, Editor of the Conservative Home website, observed that EU customs
legislation might apply to Northern Ireland, not Great Britain. Making Northern
Ireland a part of the EU customs territory would be against the Taxation
(Cross-Border Trade) Act 2018.
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87046
Even
that is incoherent, as it is difficult (if not impossible) to see how Northern
Ireland can remain in the customs union. Amongst other things, this would mean
the Northern Ireland administration having to collect tariffs on goods imported
from the rest of the UK (and from the rest of the world), and remitting 80
percent of the proceeds to Brussels.
Trade
The
EU is also an enthusiastic member of the World Trade Organization and is bound
by its rules. The WTO makes public its legal base and test cases in its
‘Analytic Index’. It is an established guide to the interpretation and
application of the WTO agreements.
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/ai17_e.htm
There
are binding interpretations on goals and obligations of trade treaties
(references 8, 9, 11, 13)
“arrangements
entered into by Members be reciprocal and mutually advantageous concessions
made by WTO Members should be interpreted so as to further the general
objective of the expansion of trade in goods and the substantial reduction of
tariffs… “security and predictability of ‘the reciprocal and mutually
advantageous arrangements directed to the substantial reduction of tariffs and
other barriers to trade’ is an object and purpose of the WTO Agreement
….
“[regional
trade agreements] the purpose of such agreements should be to facilitate trade
between the constituent territories and not to raise barriers to the trade of
other Members with such territories; and that in their formation or enlargement
the parties to them should to the greatest possible extent avoid creating
adverse effects on the trade of other Members;”
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/analytic_index_e/wto_agree_01_e.htm
Any
attempt to force the UK to mirror EU minimum tariffs or restrict its potential
for trade liberalisation would seem to be against WTO obligations.
Similarly
if the view in the European Council negotiating guidelines that life outside
the EU must be restricted compared with EU membership extends into trade, it
would appear to run contra to WTO rulings, as well as established EU trade
policies.
http://www.newalliance.org.uk/annex218.htm
The
WA would definitely produce trade barriers and adverse effects.
The
European Court of Justice has ruled that Treaty goals were binding in Cases
11/00, 15/00.
The
Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties requires that
“Every
treaty in force is binding upon the parties to it and must be performed by them
in good faith”
(Article
26, Pacta sunt servanda)
http://untreaty.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/1_1_1969.pdf
Likely
Commons defeat - private correspondence from Greg Hands MP, 1 Jan 2019
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-46533245 (16:38)
How
changes to deal could look
Phillip
Souta, head of UK policy at Clifford Chance, says there are a number of ways
Mrs May could make changes to the withdrawal agreement, including
•
adding a protocol or annexe to the treaty,
•
having conclusions in the document
•
Or exchanging letters
The
Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (Article 31)
2.
The context for the purpose of the interpretation of a treaty shall comprise,
in addition to the text, including its preamble and annexes:
(a)
any agreement relating to the treaty which was made between all the parties in
connection with the conclusion of the treaty;
http://untreaty.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/1_1_1969.pdf
May's
4 tests
https://brexitcentral.com/full-text-theresa-mays-update-mps-last-weeks-european-council/
"The
EU argue that they cannot give a legally binding commitment to a UK-wide
customs arrangement in the Withdrawal Agreement, so their original proposal
must remain a possibility. Furthermore, people are understandably worried that
we could get stuck in a backstop that is designed only to be temporary. And
there are also concerns that Northern Ireland could be cut off from accessing
its most important market – Great Britain."
She
went on to say there were now four steps that therefore needed to be taken:
·
make
the commitment to a temporary UK-EU joint customs territory legally binding
·
create
an option to extend the Implementation Period as an alternative to the backstop
·
ensure
that were we to need either of the insurance policies – whether the backstop or
a short extension to the Implementation Period – we could not be kept in either
arrangement indefinitely
·
deliver
the commitment to ensure full continued access for Northern Ireland’s
businesses to the whole of the UK internal market
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46083031
Mr
Wilson, the Democratic Unionist Party's (DUP) MP for East Antrim and the
party's Brexit spokesman, said: "This is a red herring that's been thrown
in to either string out the negotiations until there's a change in government
in the UK, or to make the price of leaving the EU the break-up of the UK, or to
keep the UK in the customs union and the single market"
.
The
MP pointed to comments from the Irish Taoiseach (prime minister), Leo Varadkar,
who said he had been given assurances about the border by the European
Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.
In
July Mr Varadkar said: "President Juncker and my EU colleagues have on
many occasions said that they wouldn't require us to put in place a physical
infrastructure and customs checks on the border between Northern Ireland and
Ireland."
...
President
Juncker's office refused to say whether he had made such an assurance, saying
simply it would not comment on the ongoing negotiations.
Sammy
Wilson added: "There's no real problem, as the EU have now confirmed. If
they say in the event of no deal, we'll not be putting up any border, then
what's the issue?"
BBC
Political Editor, Katya Adler
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46339623
“the
EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier calls a non-orderly Brexit.
EU
leaders are hell-bent on avoiding that....
Even
if tariff-reduction was a big part of the plan, there are Non-Trade Barriers
(NTBs) that provide most of the hassle in trade. 'No Deal' would not adequately
address them.
Jacob
Rees-Mogg MP has urged that a deal is preferable.
Lord
Lilley talked of WTO+++. (Bruges Group
address 3 Dec 2018)
A
report from Scotland Yard’s deputy assistant commissioner, Richard Martin, seen
by the Guardian, says police urgently need to “mitigate the impact of UK losing
access to EU tools such as a database that monitors the movements of sex
offenders and suspected terrorists.
Martin,
a senior Met officer who leads on Brexit for the NPCC, writes: “On a Brexit
no-deal scenario, the UK will lose access to European measures, tools and mechanisms.
These instruments are used on a daily basis in operational policing and unless
the UK can negotiate continued access to them we will no longer be able to use
them.
USA
assertive in negotiations with EU
Could
'No Deal' car tariffs add to Germany/EU's problems?
In
that deal, Washington agreed to hold off car tariffs on the understanding that
both parties would work quickly toward a broader EU-U.S. trade deal. On
Wednesday, however, the two officials accused Malmström of treading water.
Referring
to his Tuesday talks with Malmström, Ross said he warned her that he would only
hold fire on new tariffs on Europe for “as long as talks are going
satisfactorily.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cv0kerlpjwvt/economic-effects-of-brexit (10:24) 9 Oct 2018
Hard
Brexit would cost Germany €3bn
A
hard Brexit would result in extra tariffs of more than €3bn for German
companies each year, the IW economic institute in Cologne said this morning.
It
warned that German exports to Britain could drop by up to 57%.
Germany's
powerful carmaking sector would be particularly hard as it would face around
60% of the extra costs, the institute said.
In
the long term, a hard Brexit would probably result in price rises and a shift
in Germany's flows of goods, it added.
"No
deal" scenario not an option
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86917
AKA
Penny Mordaunt MP's 'managed no Deal'
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/18/managed-no-deal-brexit
Downing
Street has itself all but admitted that the idea of a carefully stage-managed
no-deal is a non-starter, given the EU has said it won’t even open discussions
about such a thing until after we leave, and it beggars belief that May is
seriously just planning to wing it.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1060415/brexit-news-penny-mordaunt-theresa-may-no-deal-talks-eu
The
International Development Secretary said the UK should demand a stand-alone
transition period from Brussels. This would allow no deal to take place without
causing a devastating impact on the economy. A “managed glide path” of up to
two years will mean any future relationship with Brussels will be okay for
business, she argued.
Franklin
Dehousse view on avoiding disruption (see also earlier links)
Reader
comment on Conservative Home
Following
on from Camilla Cavendish's piece in the FT yesterday ("There is still the
Norway-style alternative to May’s Brexit deal") this piece is welcome
although concentrating on EEA without reference to the EFTA second pillar of
EEA detracts from its credibility.
Barnier
has repeatedly proposed 'Norway' but of course Mrs May's red lines have
intervened.
This
week we learned (comments at EEA Council) that Barnier had offered Mrs May
stand-alone EEA, presumably a third pillar, as alluded to in the EFTA website
FAQs.
IT
systems readiness
https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252452518/Defra-still-to-test-six-critical-IT-systems-before-Brexit (14 Nov 2018)
MPs
have raised concerns around Defra’s Brexit readiness as it hasn’t yet begun
testing six critical IT systems needed to replace EU systems, but the
department remains confident
...
The
government’s No Deal Brexit planning document on data protection warns free
flow of personal data from EU isn’t guaranteed, and organisations must take
action to ensure they will still be able receive data from Europe.
Of
the 85 IT systems at the UK border, 30 will need to be replaced or changed due to
Brexit, but critical new or updated border IT systems won’t ready by the time
the UK leaves the EU, PAC report finds.
HMRC
CDS IT (developed independent of Brexit, but important towards it)
-
testing could go to the wire (23 Oct 2018)
https://www.nao.org.uk/report/the-uk-border-preparedness-for-eu-exit/
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/The-UK-border-preparedness-for-EU-exit.pdf
In
unusually tough language, auditor general Sir Amyas Morse said ministers were
only beginning to understand the momentous task of Brexit and that without
further resources would find that “at the first tap, this falls apart like a
chocolate orange”.
...
[Morse]
went on: “A year ago I gave a speech at the Institute of Government that said
the Government’s programme was already overloaded before the EU vote.
“It
had massive challenges and it needed to recognise that the civil service
couldn't handle just about anything that was thrown at it. It needed to
prioritise and focus its resources on things that really mattered to it.”
BCC
hasn't had full assurances over concerns in its Business Risk Register
https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/media/get/Business%20Brexit%20Risk%20Register.pdf
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87018
"In
a worst case scenario", he said, " British hauliers carrying
refrigerated goods could face the prospect of far longer journeys – perhaps
hundreds of additional miles – to find a French port equipped to process their
consignment. When they finally get there they could encounter further delays
waiting for checks to take place".
....
There
is, he says, already a veterinary recruitment and retention crisis in the UK,
and that problem is getting worse. Currently, 45 percent of UK government vet
posts are filled by vets from other EU member states and 95 percent of OVSs are
non-UK EU vets. With less than six months to go until Brexit, there is still no
guarantee than these individuals will be allowed to remain in post.
In
the absence of these cheap vets, there are not enough UK vets to do the work.
And not only don't they want to do it, they are too expensive. The additional
costs would bankrupt the meat industry. However, the EHOs who once did the work
are no longer trained for it, and also don't want to do the work.
...
That
will leave the UK struggling to maintain EU export standards, which we've
allowed to become based on veterinary inspection, which means that the meat
industry will find it increasingly difficult to keep up current export volumes
– with operating margins also under pressure.
RHA
claims on goods movement
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87082
These
developments come just as "haulage bosses are upping the ante on the
effects of a "no deal" scenario on goods movements through Dover and
Calais. Rod McKenzie, director of policy at the Road Haulage Association (RHA),
asserts that Government plans for customs checks at Dover are "so
impractical" it would take eight hours to clear an average lorry carrying
food and goods from Calais.
This
figure comes from a rather elastic view of a "consignment", with the
suggestion that one lorry could carry up to 8,000 consignments, each of which
would need a separate customs declaration form, each of which would take ten
minutes to fill in. That would take 170 people eight hours to process, we are
told.
Even
if you took the average trailer which has 400 consignments per delivery, that
would take nine people eight hours to process, says Richard Burnett, RHA chief
executive.
Generally,
however, a consignment is taken to be one batch dispatched from the same person
to a single recipient (consignee). There can be many different product types in
one consignment. Thus, the idea that the hauliers will be burdened to that
extent is somewhat over-egged.
Much
of the report is incoherent anyway, with the news that there would be temporary
border inspection posts (BIPs) for food controls in place for April and
recruitment had begun for the first batch of 250 customs officials. Yet, it is
veterinary officials who will be carrying out the work, not customs officials.
In
the event of the withdrawal agreement being ratified, the BIPs won't be needed
anyway, while the "no deal" scenario means that no foodstuff of
animal origin can be exported to the EU for the foreseeable future – which
again means that BIPs won't be needed.
All
we can reliably deduce is that there are going to be problems and delays,
something which we knew already. And those who wish to deny that, are going to
deny it, come what may, branding it "project fear".
[For
an alternative view of WTO rules predominating over EU rules (ref: SPS, TBT)
see also http://www.newalliance.org.uk/ref1018.htm ('Other international agreements' section))]
Some
potential mitigation measures to keep trade flowing
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/no-deal-is-no-nightmare-facts-about-eu-trade-after-brexit/
Formal
contingency plans - UK and Irish Governments, Commission
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-governments-preparations-for-a-no-deal-scenario
https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-government-no-deal-brexit-plan-4406051-Dec2018/
https://merrionstreet.ie/MerrionStreet/en/News
-Room/Releases/No_Deal_Brexit_Contingency_Plan.pdf
https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparedness_en
https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparedness/preparedness-notices_en
https://ec.europa.eu/info/council-working-party-article-50-preparedness-seminars_en
https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparedness/legislative-initiatives-and-other-legal-acts_en
EU
preparations for No Deal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46617152
Temporary
measures - which can be switched off without consultation - and 'won't be equal
to membership'.
EU’s
hard Brexit is going to hurt — a lot
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-hard-brexit-is-going-to-hurt-a-lot-no-deal-theresa-may-uk/
“Contingency
measures will only be taken where strictly necessary and in the interest of the
European Union and its citizens.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-unveils-minimal-brexit-safety-net-for-no-deal/
Commission
officials said they had made only the most basic provisions for
business-as-usual to continue in the financial sector — as regards the central
clearing of derivatives, certain over-the-counter derivatives contracts, and
central depository services.
[EU
officials sidestepped discussion of the impact on the EU's own budget and NI
border]
Transition
needed abroad, negotiating clout for the UK?
Meanwhile,
industry president of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), Dieter Kempf, spoke of the "dramatic" situation that a
drawn-out Brexit process was presenting for the bloc – and warned that the EU
should not reopen negotiations.
Mr
Kempf said: "Every delaying tactic is extremely
dangerous. The economy finally needs clarity.
"Politicians
in the United Kingdom must finally see the gravity of the situation. We have
only about three months left, no one can afford to
play games.
Without
this agreement, there is no transitional phase, which our companies urgently
need."
....
[Eric
Schweitzer, president of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK)]
Echoing
the thoughts of Mr Kempf, DIHK president Schweitzer
told reporters in Berlin: "You have to be clear about what it's all about:
Great Britain is the fifth largest export market in Germany.
"More
than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to the UK. Our export volume
with Great Britain has already declined by more than 5 percent since the Brexit
decision."
The
UK’s former ambassador to Brussels, Ivan Rogers, thinks the EU has shown
“dangerous complacency on the British question”. (16 Sept 2018)
In
his speech on Thursday night Rogers criticised the “delusional” thinking of
British Eurosceptics and said they knew that a genuine no-deal Brexit “would
bring several key sectors of the economy to a halt”. He said that advocates of
a no-deal Brexit expected to trigger a host of mini deals at the 11th hour.
No-deal
advocates “argue that European self interest will be the deus ex machina which
delivers a whole set of legal mini deals ensuring that it’s all all right on
the night,” Rogers said. “This is, I fear, simply delusional.”
Much
of his speech was a plea to EU27 member states to take a strategic approach to
Brexit, recognising that they cannot have “just a bog-standard third-country
relationship like any other” with the UK.
...
The
EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has long said the UK’s refusal to accept
the jurisdiction of the European court and other red lines can only mean a free
trade agreement, which would leave the UK as a “third” (foreign) country.
Barnier
sees the Chequers plan as a means to reach a Canada-style free trade deal, plus
additional agreements on aviation, internal security and foreign policy.
Rogers
is fearful that the EU will go down this path, spelling it out in a scant
political declaration at the end of talks, which May will then struggle to sell
to the Commons. In this case, Rogers warned, the EU risks an accidental
no-deal.
If
the EU goes down this path it can “congratulate itself over the cigars that it
has royally screwed the exiting state with a deal heavily skewed to the EU’s
advantage,” Rogers said. However, he warned that in the long run this could
damage the EU’s own interests. Both sides, Rogers said, would lose if the
relationship descended into one “bedevilled” by trade disputes and mutual
recriminations.
The
27 other EU countries and the Commission are therefore pursuing a delicate
tactic: they are refusing London's offer to work together to prepare for the
failure of the negotiations, thereby deliberately risking devastating
consequences in the event of a no-deal Brexit. This pressure, so the calculus,
could help the negotiations succeed.
...
The
British government has recently tried several times to work with both
individual EU states and the Commission to cushion the impact of such a
scenario. But the EU-27 does not want to play along.
For
example, Martin Selmayr, Secretary General of the EU Commission and right-wing
leader of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, took a full five weeks
to respond to a petition by British Brexit Minister Dominic Raab. In the letter
of August 30, Raab had asked for cooperation in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
But in his response of 4 October, which is the SPIEGEL, Selmayr let the British
flash off.
[Grayling-Bulc,
his attempt at contingency negotiations]
"traffic
issues are part of the future relationships, which will be discussed only when
the exit agreement is"
...
[new,
general context]
there are doubts as to whether the
Commission's minimalist contingency plan is sufficient.
Should
the deal fail in the British House of Commons, there would be little time left
for EU countries to adapt to the no-deal scenario.
Many
EU countries, including Germany, would therefore like to move faster, according
to Brussels. Legislative proposals must be drafted by mid-November at the
latest. The special summit in November is therefore well suited, because the
next regular meeting of heads of state and government will take place in
December.
Reality
Check: What are EU countries doing to prepare for a no-deal Brexit? (29 Oct 2018)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46064836
In
Spain, nothing was being done to prepare for no deal. There is no written plan
or anything formal and she said the government was waiting another few weeks
before planning for a no-deal scenario.
...a
lack of detailed information has caused some frustration among German business
leaders and opposition parties.
Rob
Wilson (ex MP) predicts EU would be forced to make concession to avoid Theresa May
getting a No Confidence vote.
They
know the person they have painstakingly negotiated with over the past two years
will be toppled if they do not compromise – and they will not be able to
control what follows. An avoidable political, constitutional and possibly an
economic crisis will leave the EU badly scarred. So the EU will make concessions, so now is
the time for the Prime Minister to prepare for No Deal as never before and hang
tough with the EU for the things she needs conceded.
Romano
Prodi, former Commission President
Prodi,
who twice served as Italian prime minister and had Jean-Claude Juncker’s job
until 2004, said that the EU needed to do everything it could to avoid the
“economic catastrophe” of a no-deal Brexit.
WTO
Waiver, a get-out-of-jail card
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/glossary_e/waiver_e.htm
Waivers
and other exceptions
https://ecampus.wto.org/admin/files/Course_382/Module_537/ModuleDocuments/eWTO-M8-R1-E.pdf
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/pascal-lamy-way-forward-after-brexit
So
it came about that the Prime Minister said recently that there if MPs hold out
for their vision of a perfect Brexit, there is risk of a situation “where
Brexit is somehow delayed, or people try stop it from happening”. But how could it be delayed? (By which May also meant stopped, since Brexit
might well never emerge from long grass once kicked into it.)
After
all, no less authoritative a figure than Sir David Natzler, the clerk of the
Commons, has said that the Government can ignore any non-statutory vote by MPs
that suggests an alternative Brexit plan.
That
would include any amendments to the “meaningful vote”.
Reasoned
warning from Guido Fawkes
https://order-order.com/2018/12/27/bercow-thwart-brexit-meaningful-vote-defeated/
…the
Speaker could choose to hold the Prime Minister in contempt of Parliament
…the
Speaker to be even more flexible about the amendments he deems to be in scope
of Brexit legislation. So for example the Trade Bill, Immigration Bill or
Agriculture Bill could all be amended to make the Act conditional on their
being a second referendum.
DUP
leader Arlene Foster did not rule out her party backing a Norway-style deal
with EEA membership as the resulting customs rules would apply to the entire
UK.
"I'm
not going to be proscriptive with the Government," Mrs Foster said.
Dr
Alan Wager, ‘Cave-in or Chaos?’
The
government, in short, have very competently sold the idea to MPs that it is too
incompetent to adequately deliver no deal.
This
no deal strategy has two parts in the House of Commons.
Firstly,
the lack of preparation to deliver the necessary legislation for a no deal.
Secondly, framing the prime minister’s Brexit deal as a “deal or no deal”
option when MPs get their final “meaningful vote”.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/07/mps-brexit-norway
Unless
Theresa May delays the vote, 11 December 2018 might be about to become one of
the most important in recent British history; more important even than 23 June
2016.
If
MPs vote down Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, as nearly all ministers
expect them to, they will set Britain on course for either the softest possible
Brexit or a second referendum.
In
the process, they may well split the Tory party. Theresa May’s strategy has
been to play chicken with Parliament. Her team saw virtue in intransigence and
calculated that at the last moment MPs would get out of her way.
CAUTIONARY NOTE: LABOUR’S POLICY ON BREXIT SEEMS TO WOBBLE A LOT
Jeremy
Corbyn
What
I said was we couldn’t stop it because we don’t have the votes in parliament to
do so”
John
McDonnell has said Labour would vote for a Brexit deal if it “protects jobs and
the economy” as he tried to argue that his party’s position was in line with
what British business wanted. The shadow chancellor was speaking immediately
after he met delegates from business at Bloomberg’s City of London offices,
where he said “the big issue” they had raised with him was the status of the Brexit
negotiations. The Labour frontbencher added: “We’ve got to secure a deal, based
on membership of the customs union and a close and collaborative relationship
with the single market. I think there’s a deal to be had, and that the
Europeans will offer a deal that will be acceptable to us on that basis.” -
Guardian
Multiple
Labour MPs have told The Independent they are prepared to support the Brexit
agreement Theresa May hopes to bring back from Brussels, boosting the prime
minister’s chances of forcing it through parliament
....
Labour
is expected to instruct its MPs to vote against Ms May’s deal, which it will
say does not meet the six strict tests the party has set out. However, one MP
said: “Everyone knows the six tests were designed to never be met.”
...
Another
said Labour could not credibly oppose a deal that had the support of all 27
other EU countries. “The idea the Labour Party should block a deal that is
backed by the likes of Merkel, Macron and the rest of the 27 is ludicrous.”
...
Potential
rebels have increasingly found an unlikely ally in John McDonnell, who, MPs
said, appears to be increasingly concerned about the risks of Labour being seen
to vote against Brexit.
...
Several
Labour frontbenchers are understood to be considering abstaining from the vote,
effectively boosting Ms May’s chances of securing a parliamentary majority.
They believe they could do this without having to resign from their positions.
Craig
and Phillipson, for UKCLA
BBC
Political Editor, Katya Adler, 'Blinkmanship'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45822377 (Oct
2018)
But
above all, critics cannot fail to notice that every time there has been a step
forward in negotiations, it is because Theresa May accommodated EU demands.
However
hard, however often the prime minister closed her eyes during this Brexit
process to wish and wish, the EU has refused to make significant concessions,
so instead she's had to blink and blink.
And
that is what Brussels fully expects when it comes to the Irish border too.
EU
contacts close to the negotiations tell me they want to use lots of
aspirational, inspirational language in the paper on EU-UK future relations;
words like unprecedented, unique, deep and special.
...
The
timetable much depends on Theresa May's political needs. EU diplomats say they
are relaxed - honestly - about the deal being struck early next year instead.
And
while they won't concede to the prime minister's demands on Brexit deal
content, the EU is happy to accommodate on choreography.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46594341 (Dec 2018)
And
what of the theory the EU is playing hardball over the UK's leaving conditions
in the hope it will put Britons off Brexit and encourage them to stay?
Putting
aside for one moment whether that tactic could ever be successful, it's a
mistake to believe at this point that all EU countries are still desperate for
the UK to remain.
While
that would certainly be to the EU's economic advantage - and many in German
Chancellor Angela Merkel's government will have added the reversal of Brexit to
their Santa wish list this year - Emmanuel Macron, for one, is not mad keen to
have the UK back in the fold.
...
The
idea that her cabinet's much trumpeted preparations for a no-deal Brexit might
worry the EU is openly mocked in Brussels as the flimsiest of paper tigers.
They
simply don't buy it. EU leaders know most UK MPs are dead-set against a no-deal
scenario. They also believe that practical preparations for a cliff-edge Brexit
are woefully inadequate in the UK.
In
the end though, as the clock ticks down to the possibility of a no-deal that
would be costly and chaotic for the EU too, Mrs May hopes European leaders will
soften in the face of her demands.
There
have been many predictions over Brexit but the bet in Brussels still stands -
Westminster will blink first.
...
EU
leaders think they stem fundamentally from deep divisions in the UK over
Brexit, which is why they haven't the slightest intention of compromising EU
principles or red lines for this divorce deal.
They
see no evidence the Brexit package would definitely be passed by the UK
Parliament if they did.
‘The
EU's Game of Chicken’
https://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/news/detail/7758
Veteran
Labour politician Peter Mandelson expects the U.K. to end up with only loose
ties to the European Union after leaving the bloc.
“It’s
almost certain that we’re going to end up with some form of hard Brexit,”
Mandelson, who served in the governments of former Prime Ministers Tony Blair
and Gordon Brown, told Bloomberg Television at the New Economy Forum in
Singapore.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/04/can-the-uk-get-an-extension-on-brexit
France
was among the first to insist Brexit must be over before the European
elections. This is the Brussels consensus, although no formal discussions have
ever taken place. Officials think it would be legally impossible for a country
to be an EU member state without participating in elections.
...
Nevertheless,
some diplomats speculate that it could be possible to engineer an extension
until mid-summer, before the first sitting of the European parliament, which is
usually in July. This reflects a desire to find a pragmatic answer if the UK
needs more time, but it is a minority view, not backed up by formal legal
opinion. The majority insist the UK would still need to take part in May’s
elections, even if the extension expired in June or July.
...
Leave and then
return?
Faced
with the looming deadline, some think the
UK would be better off leaving and trying to return during the Brexit
transition. In other words, forget article 50 and focus on article 49, the
EU treaty provision on joining the club. One member of the European
parliament’s Brexit steering group, the Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts, has counselled remainers to adopt this strategy
– assuming the option to return won in a referendum or general election.
COMMENT
(Blackthorne1)
The
EU draft of the WA with the Backstop will never reach Parliament as it will
never be concluded
May
cannot sign up to a WA that annex’s Northern Ireland
The
EU want to humiliate the U.K. by forcing the annexation of Northern Ireland and
reunifying the Ireland of Ireland
However
May cannot sign as it would be illegal under the GFA in that it would alter the
status of NI without consent and it would also be illegal under the Customs and
Taxation Act 2018
No
amount of bribes by the Chancellor to the DUP will get them to accept
annexation
Any
fudge will open the door to the SNP for an Independent vote and a special deal
Councillor
Lee Reynolds, Director of Policy for the Democratic Unionist Party.
For
those who want to research deeper, they will discover the Belfast Agreement was
no barrier to the Irish introducing a hard border enforced by police and troops
in 2001 during a foot and mouth outbreak nor from running regular immigration
operations. Neither did it prevent the Irish introducing a sea border.
Longstanding access to Irish coastal waters for Northern Ireland fishermen was
ended, and the Irish government has refused to bring forward the necessary
legislation for the past two years. In typical unreciprocated generosity, Irish
fishing boats continue to have access to coastal waters around Northern
Ireland.
...
This
means the EU proposals on a sea border would breach the Belfast Agreement, as
they would effectively end the first mechanism – the Assembly and national
government relationship. The EU placing
itself in the position of the UK Government would fundamentally shift the
relationships in the North-South Ministerial Council, and would not accept any
vetoes or safeguards.
Amongst
the nationalist community 92% said they would vote for a united Ireland and
they would be joined that by 10% of the Unionist community.
(COMMENT
by ‘60022Mallard’)
Did
the pollsters pop down to Eire and ask them if they wanted NI to join them?
NI
currently produces about £11bn less in taxes than the government spends there.
That is 5% of Eire GDP. Where is that coming from?
I
trust Eire would also be asked to take on an appropriate proportion of the UK
national debt with any change.
Do
the politicians in Eire want to add a fourth sizeable block of MPs who will
probably hold the balance of power?
At
present many people make a nice living out of exploiting the differences in tax
/ VAT across the border. It might not be as simple as you try to make out!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46584654
Two
of Mrs May's key allies - chief of staff, Gavin Barwell, and her effective
second-in-command David Lidington - distanced themselves from reports they were
involved in planning for a new referendum.
...
Mr
Lidington tweeted that he had told the Commons last week that another
referendum would be "divisive" and would not guarantee a
"decisive" ending to the debate.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6476095/Theresa-warns-warring-MPs-Corbyn-no-Brexit.html
And
with the Government in chaos over Brexit, several senior ministers are in talks
with Labour over whether a second referendum or a Norway-style deal would break
the deadlock. The PM's de facto deputy David Lidington, and Justice Secretary,
David Gauke, have been in talks with Labour MPs over the two possibilities.
...
Mrs
May was considering making an emergency dash to Brussels to secure new legally
binding assurances over the controversial backstop – as the EU hatched secret
plans to delay Brexit by six weeks;
...
Amid
mounting opposition to the deal, civil servants have war-gamed two versions of
the UK holding another referendum. The first is a straight choice between the
PM's deal and remaining in the EU, and the second would be a leave, remain
contest with a second question asking them if they prefer the existing deal or
a no-deal departure on World Trade Organisation terms, The Sunday Times
reported.
Some
may have believed in the Prime Minister’s deal.
Others may never have done so.
But all are now reported to want another vote on it to take place soon,
preparing the way for an “indicative vote” to take place on other policy
options. Again, these claims have not
been denied.
This
would duly find little support for no deal, and more for a second
referendum. The way would then be clear
for turning that support into a Commons majority.
This
helps to explain the ferocious infighting among Remainers and Soft Brexiteers
about the so-called Norway Plus scheme.
Campaigners for a second referendum are trying to kill it off, in order
to leave their plan as the only practicable option for that spectrum of MPs to
back. Nick Boles, the leading
Conservative Commons advocate of Norway Plus, is fighting to keep it alive –
and looking to Labour opponents of a second referendum to help him to do
so. If he fails, other MPs who have
pushed the scheme, such as Oliver Letwin and Rudd herself, will find that a
combination of their sympathies and events push them towards that second
referendum.
...
The Sunday Times claims that she recently
“war-gamed her options during a recent conversation with David Cameron. Her
predecessor told friends that May – while personally opposed to a referendum –
was a “servant of the Commons” and would back a second vote if MPs voted for
it”. This site has had the same
reasoning put to it.
Prominent
Leave campaigners are making behind-the-scenes preparations for a second
referendum, according to MPs and activists, in the growing belief that
stalemate over Brexit in parliament could eventually force the issue back to
the electorate.
https://www.ft.com/content/080d418a-f887-11e8-8b7c-6fa24bd5409c
Several
people involved said that a key aide to Lynton Crosby, the Australian political
strategist behind the Conservatives’ 2015 election victory, has been working
with Eurosceptic MPs in plotting the future course of Brexit. This has included
informal conversations on how to handle
another
plebiscite. David Canzini, a former head of campaigns for the Conservative
party, is said to be working at CTF Partners — Sir Lynton’s consultancy, which
has close ties to Boris Johnson, a leading Eurosceptic — with Brexit-supporting
MPs on the so-called “Chuck Chequers” campaign against Theresa May’s withdrawal
agreement.
Leave
Means Leave preparing for 2nd referendum
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46480656
Tice
told BBC Politics Live...... it had to be either "Remain or leave
properly," by which he meant trading on World Trade Organisation terms.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46426380
The
Electoral Commission has told BBC News it has "contingency plans in
place" and is ready "to respond quickly to any unscheduled
poll".
...
[adapting
the 2015 Act] it would still take about 11 weeks to get through Parliament.
Based on that timetable, it would take until late February for the bill to be
passed - and that's if the process started now.
https://capx.co/if-you-thought-2018-was-trouble-just-wait-until-2019/
...Len
McCluskey, Labour’s leading trade union backer, came out against a second
referendum this week it was hard to avoid the thought that must mean the game
is up. It seemed improbable McCluskey could have been wandering off the
reservation here and rather more probable that he was channelling the dear
leader, Jeremy Corbyn, himself.
even now strategists at the People’s Vote
campaign concede “there is not currently a majority in support of a People’s
Vote at Westminster”.
Anne
McElvoy, senior editor of the Economist is sceptical on Lab MPs in Leave seats
and frontbenchers supporting a 2nd referendum
Richard
Partington (not a Brexit sympathiser)
Brexit
will have a slow burn effect on UK economy.
No
cliff edge - can kicked further down the road
Most
factors point to growth holding steady next year
Poses
serious problem for advocates of People's Vote
IQ
Research phone polling supports Brexit, opposes May Deal.
https://brexitcentral.com/new-polling-shows-public-kicking-back-theresa-mays-brexit-deal/
https://globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/GB_Brexit_Deal_Polling_26.11.18.pdf
57-41
for Brexit
25%
support for deal
The
survey for the Politico website found that when presented with a list of
options, just 9% believe there should be a fresh vote on the UK's membership of
the bloc in those circumstances.
The
poll of 3,006 people by Hanbury Strategy also found that only 8% think there
should be a referendum on whether to accept the Brexit deal or leave with no
deal at all.
And
just 18% believed there should be another general election, as demanded by the
Labour party.
Hype
- 13% of 3000 really back a referendum not 81% of 500
It
appears that very little has changed over the past two years.
Survation
“54
percent would vote to remain today, 46 percent would vote to leave"
[Only]
27 percent agree with the argument of the People’s Vote campaign that the deal
leaves the U.K. worse off than membership of the EU and “we would be better off
not leaving at all.”
https://order-order.com/2018/11/16/just-36-brits-want-stop-brexit/
46-36%
for leave, even on YouGov
YouGov
for the People’s Vote campaign
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/20/polls-stay-eu-yougov-brexit-peoples-vote
For
most of this year, polls have shown remain ahead of leave, typically by four to
six points. But in a referendum between staying in the EU and leaving on the
terms that the government has negotiated, staying enjoys an 18-point lead:
59-41%.
https://order-order.com/2018/12/19/peoples-vote-infighting/
They
all despise Tom Baldwin who serves effectively at the pleasure of Alastair
Campbell, who along with Blair is the real overlord of the whole thing. The
Blairites are very definitely pulling the strings.
Baldwin
is obsessed with polls and many on the campaign suspect he got the
multi-millionaire Julian Dunkerton, who co-founded the Superdry fashion label,
to make the weird precondition of his £1 million donation that it all be spent
on polling. Good for YouGov’s profits, with the result that the campaign has an
overload of pointless polls telling them nothing really new, which they can’t
even turn into stories now the media narrative is all about the shenanigans in
parliament.
[NB
a cynic would ask if business would keep coming if the poll results weren't so
advantageous to whoever commissioned them].
YouGov
executives worked with a German-government backed Ebert Foundation (FES) to run
workshops on converting British youth to love the EU.
http://www.newalliance.org.uk/feb2013.pdf
YouGov
ID cards poll data April 2018. Client not stated.
Pascal
Lamy on FTA (‘2 years to 5-6 years’)
http://www.freetradeagreements.co.uk/projects/pascal-lamy/
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/23/brexit_ireland_backstop_hmrc/
With
just two years to go until the end of the Brexit transition period, HMRC has
said its preparations for a Northern Ireland backstop could take up to 30
months – once Whitehall has said how the mechanism will work. Effectively, this
means there is no definitive date on when it could be operational.
...
For
a start, he said, the department needs further clarity "on what exactly is
required in order for us to be able to work out what IT systems we would need
to build". After that, HMRC would need to know what EU IT systems and
databases it still had access to. The Withdrawal Agreement provides for
different systems to be shut off at different times, but a draft political
declaration published yesterday aims to re-negotiate access once the transition
period is over.
Patrick
O'Flynn MEP
https://brexitcentral.com/shocked-i-say-appear-establishment-conspiracy-brexit/
As
Sabine Weyand – Mr Barnier’s German deputy – recently told reporters, the withdrawal
agreement hands the EU sufficient leverage to ensure the UK remains in
permanent high alignment with it
Mervyn
King
...But
there was no such planning. Instead, the Government pretended that everything
could be postponed until an imaginary long-term deal could be negotiated.
...
It
was inevitable, therefore, that, sooner or later, Britain would decide to
withdraw from a political project in which it had little interest apart from
the shared desire for free trade.
...
If
this deal is not abandoned, I believe that the UK will end up abrogating it
unilaterally — regardless of the grave damage that would do to Britain’s
reputation and standing.
Vassal
states do not go gently into that good night. They rage. If this Parliament
bequeaths to its successors the choice between a humiliating submission and the
abrogation of a binding international treaty, it will not be forgiven — and
will not deserve to be.
The
Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties covers the practicalities of
terminating treaties, including resolution of issues at the UN.
http://untreaty.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/1_1_1969.pdf
Wider
international law on termination of treaties
There
will be a range of opinions, and the texts identified so far are heavy going..
Some
of the basic thinking will be found via www.un.org/law/ilc/ (International Law Commission)
Useful
search terms might include
'treaty
termination' 'state responsibility' 'reparation' 'compensation' 'restitution'
'ius cogens'/'jus cogens' 'treaty invalidation'
Radio
4 Question Time, 24 Nov 2018.
Ken
Clarke MP at least got a laugh when he said that he hadn't the foggiest into
what would happen next. He thought that Parliament might vote against May's
deal, then vote against a General Election, then vote against a second
referendum....
German
sovereignty AKA ‘The Paymaster of Europe’
Daniel
Kawczynski is a long-term campaigner for reparations for Poland, where he was
born, and the UK. Estimates put damage caused to Britain at the end of World
War II at £120billion – equivalent to £3,620billion today
Mr
Kawczynski said he had been stunned to discover after submitting a written
question to Parliament on the subject that Britain had waived its rights to any
reparations following the reunification of Germany in 1990.
He
then submitted a follow-up question asking why the reason for this, and who
made the decision, and was told it was signed by then-Foreign Secretary Douglas
Hurd to “enable the united Germany to have full sovereignty over its internal
and external affairs”.
[Kawczynski]
“They are very keen to tell us about the £40billion we supposedly owe them for
Brexit, not to mention the countless billions we’ve already paid in, but they
refuse to pay for the terrible destruction they caused to this country
...
The
full text of the written answer to Mr Kawczynski’s follow-up questions,
attributed to Minister of State for Europe and the Americans Sir Alan Duncan,
reads: “The Treaty on the Final Settlement with respect to Germany definitively
settled matters arising out of the Second World War between the parties to the
Treaty, and enabled the united Germany to have full sovereignty over its
internal and external affairs.
…
“The
Treaty was signed on behalf of the United Kingdom by the then Foreign Secretary
Douglas Hurd. German unification was debated in the House at the time and the
Treaty was laid before the House for clearance under the Ponsonby rule.”
…
Mr
Kawczynski has vowed to keep asking for clarification as to the reasons behind
the historic decision.
Paul
Whitehouse
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/readers-comment-the-eu-run-by-germany-for-germany/
Hastings
should be asked to explain why Germany has not faced action from the Commission
for breaking the Growth and Stability Pact by maintaining a destabilising trade
surplus in excess of the permitted 6 per cent of GDP for more than the
permitted maximum of three consecutive years, since 2007 – despite a complaint
to the Commission in 2013. Even Trump has acknowledged the damage being done by
Germany’s refusal to take measures to curb its surplus.
PQ
on Selmayr
Guardianista
propaganda
Based
on one wild tweet from a former SAS soldier, Matthew d’Ancona (a former
Cameroon) floats the idea that Leavers want austerity.
'Food
prices to finance: what a no-deal Brexit could mean for Britain'
This
blockbuster article, predicts all sorts of woes, particularly that a £30k min salary
threshold would 'hit vets and hospitality workers'. However if you read its
linked article, the PM failed to get Cabinet approval for this. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/19/may-cabinet-split-over-30000-immigrant-salary-threshold
(The
NFU was 'informally told' about all sorts of punitive bureaucratic measures.
However there is more formal evidence elsewhere that the EU would be in breach
of WTO rulings if it pushed for unnecessary restrictions on trade in livestock
and produce.
http://www.newalliance.org.uk/ref1018.htm ('Other international agreements' section))
As
for speculation on financial services, look beyond the headlines
40-50
jobs to move from London to Frankfurt?
It transpires that these roles will typically be 'hired locally' by a
Dublin operation rather than see staff moved from London!
Airbus
to take on 140 new apprentices in the UK
May's
deal vs Free Movement of People
The
former Conservative Party leader said it would be "very, very
difficult" to support the Prime Minister's Brexit deal arguing "far
too much has been given to the EU". Mr Duncan Smith revealed Theresa May's
deal cedes the right to claim benefits to European citizens warning this would
backtrack on the "promise of ending freedom of movement".
...“Because
it now talks, buried in there, that there will be social security coordination
between us and the EU.
“I
think when you strip out the language what that actually means is we are
prepared to cede to citizens of the European Union an almost immediate right to
claim benefits.
“This
has caused huge damage to many on low incomes who are competing with them when
they find that they come in on very, very low salaries and claim all the
benefits.
EU
workers will be offered visas to combat shortage
Theresa
May will offer EU migrants under the age of 30 two-year working visas to help
to plug a shortage of low-skilled workers after Brexit. The prime minister is
committed to making EU citizens subject to the same controls as those from
outside the bloc when freedom of movement ends. She is resisting pressure from
business leaders, backed by Philip Hammond, the chancellor, and Greg Clark, the
business secretary, to delay the rules beyond 2020 to allow time to adjust.
Mrs
May’s allies say she believes that unless businesses are forced to adapt by
increasing wages and training more Britons, they will continue to rely on
low-skilled migration from the EU. In a concession, however, Mrs May will offer
EU countries two-year employment visas for younger workers as long as they
offer Britons the same.
A
youth mobility visa scheme is already available to Australia, New Zealand,
Canada, Japan, Monaco, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong. The numbers from
Australia are capped at 34,000, with the other nations subjected to a cap of
1,000 each. The migration advisory committee (Mac) recommended in October that
the scheme be expanded to all other EU nations as part of a new skills-based
system.
-
The Times (£, 4 Dec 2018)
But
Mrs May yesterday said the "Plan B" proposal would mean Britain
having to stay signed up to EU free movement border rules and fail to deliver
the spirit of the 2016 EU referendum vote.
Immigration:
White Paper sets out post-Brexit rules for migrants
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/home-secretary-announces-new-skills-based-immigration-system
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46613900
Tens
of thousands of low-skilled migrants could come to the UK to work for up to a
year under proposed new post-Brexit immigration rules. The measure, which would
last until 2025, is intended to protect parts of the economy reliant on
overseas labour.
Will
Podmore’s new book out, ‘Brexit: the Road to Freedom’
https://brexitcentral.com/introducing-brexit-road-freedom/
Constructive
Brexit guidelines
www.newalliance.org.uk/annex218.htm
Resistance-specific
Glossary (PDF)
http://www.newalliance.org.uk/resglossary.pdf
Commons
Library Glossary on \EU
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7840
BBC
jargon-busting guide
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43470987
WTO
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/glossary_e/glossary_e.htm
EU
https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/glossary_en
http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/glossary/institutional_balance_en.htm
Disclaimer:
Quotes and articles referenced above are provided towards encouraging wider
debate. Inclusion does
not necessarily mean endorsement, and readers are encouraged to check the
assumptions used and update their perspectives. Also nothing should be
construed as ‘legal advice’.
This
page updated: 5 January 2019