Spring 2017 issue: references
Juncker and EU60
celebrations
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39388818
European
leaders are looking for ways to reinvigorate their project, but struggling to
find a united way forward.
Good
quotes from a ‘pro-European’
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/783767/Yanis-Varoufakis-EU-collapse-Treaty-of-Rome
He
hit out at Mr Juncker's brazen strategy for Brexit negotiations, which he
believed wanted to punish Britain for its referendum decision.
(ref
783753)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/24/europe-eu-european-union-60-years-old
European
integration was always a project created by the people, for the people.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/news/remembrance-victims-terrorist-attacks-brussels_en
In
three European Citizens' Initiatives related to Brexit, the Commission has
rejected a third proposal entitled 'Stop Brexit' on grounds of inadmissibility
Lords’ legal expert observation
on Vienna Convention
https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/12502.htm
https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/125.pdf
126. On the applicability
of the Vienna Convention… the EU, as an international organisation, was not and
could never be a party to the Vienna Convention, even though most Member States
were. The CJEU had resorted to the Convention in order to adjudicate on matters
regarding the external relations of the Union, but this did not mean that the Vienna
Convention bound the EU. (Dr Sánchez-Barrueco)
Punishing Britain? Negotiations and financial settlement
JEAN-CLAUDE
Juncker today took a swipe at successive British governments as he accused them
of causing Brexit by wrongly blaming Brussels for their own open door migration
policies.
‘Brussels’ should not have been constantly
blamed in British political discourse for things the EU is not responsible for
- we now know the result of such rhetoric.”
He
pointed out that the EU has virtually no influence over the spheres of
healthcare, education and welfare policy which are often so contentious in UK
elections.
In
reality Brussels does hold significant sway over the latter of those three, as
David Cameron discovered when he tried and failed to gain minor concessions
over migrants’ access to benefits.
BUT
Britain
also does not implement many of the control measures it is legally allowed to
by Brussels, such as requiring people from other EU countries to register with
authorities so that accurate numbers can be determined.
AND
FINALLY
Mr
Juncker has drawn up five “pathways” he believes European leaders can choose
from, although he has personally admitted he thinks a sixth option “designed by
the people” will be the best route to success.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/783325/Brexit-Jean-Claude-Juncker-EU-exit-Britain-bill-pay
Although
the EU’s most senior servant did not put a figure on how much the UK would be
forced to cough up, he previously claimed it would be "hefty".
Rowing
back from his usual hardline stance, Mr Juncker, however, hint he was willing
to give Brits a good deal.
“I’m
in everything but a hostile mood when it comes to Britain,” he continued.
“We’ll negotiate in a friendly way, a fair way, and we’re not naive.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39375966
"The British government and parliament
took on certain commitments as EU members and they must be honoured. This isn't
a punishment or sanctions against the UK."
Echoes of a former French minister…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/07/europe-will-need-victories-brexit-jean-pierre-raffarin-warns/
Denying
this amounted to “punishment” for Britain, Mr Raffarin said that nonetheless
Europe would need its share of “victories” over Britain in the coming
negotiations.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/783325/Brexit-Jean-Claude-Juncker-EU-exit-Britain-bill-pay
Although
the EU’s most senior servant did not put a figure on how much the UK would be
forced to cough up, he previously claimed it would be "hefty".
Rowing
back from his usual hardline stance, Mr Juncker, however, hint he was willing
to give Brits a good deal. “I’m in everything but a hostile mood when it comes
to Britain,” he continued. “We’ll negotiate in a friendly way, a fair way, and
we’re not naive.”
Barnier speech to EU
Committee of Regions, 220317, on likely Commission stance
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-723_en.htm
The
no-deal scenario is not our scenario.
We
want a deal. We want to succeed by reaching a deal.
Succeed
with the British, not against them.
...
These
negotiations cannot take place in secret.
We
will negotiate in a transparent and open manner, explaining to everyone what we
are doing.
...
Guaranteeing
[their] rights as European citizens, in the long term, will be our absolute
priority from the very start of the negotiations.
But
we can and we should agree – as soon as possible – on the principles of
continuity, reciprocity and non-discrimination so as not to leave these
citizens in a situation of uncertainty.
...
Each
country must honour its commitments to each other. Let me be clear: when a
country leaves the Union, there is no punishment. There is no price to pay to
leave. But we must settle the accounts. We will not ask the British to pay a
single Euro for something they have not agreed to as a member.
In
the same way, the 27 will also honour their commitments concerning the United
Kingdom, its citizens, companies and regions. This is the mutually responsible
way to act
...
we
must do things in the right order and put them into perspective.
The
challenge is to build a new partnership between the European Union and the
United Kingdom on a solid foundation, based on mutual confidence.
...
It
is not too early to start outlining the contours of our new partnership
today...
There
will be a free-trade agreement at the centre of this partnership, which we will
negotiate with the United Kingdom in due course.
This
free-trade agreement cannot be equivalent to what exists today. And we should
all prepare ourselves for that situation. The United Kingdom chooses to leave
the Single Market and the Customs Union. It will be a third country in two
years from now. By making this choice, the United Kingdom will naturally find
itself in a less favourable situation than that of a Member State. It will not
be possible to cherry-pick and be a participant in parts of the Single Market
...
What
we have here is not regulatory convergence but the risk, or the probability of
regulatory divergence, which could harm the Single Market.
..
But
this ambition also applies to social, fiscal, environmental and consumer
protection standards, which European citizens rightly support.
Our
community of values and interests with the United Kingdom goes beyond trade.
A
certain number of transitional arrangements may be necessary. It is too early
to say.
In
any case, these possible arrangements must be supervised by European law and
its associated legal system. Their duration will be strictly limited. They
cannot be equivalent to any form of cherry-picking of the Single Market.
http://www.conservativegroupforeurope.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Seeking-the-Common-Good-Building-a-New-Constructive-relationship.pdf sees Barnier’s ‘Six Principles’
David
Davis TV appearance on Laura Kuenssberg’s ‘Deal or no deal?’, BBC1, March 2017.
DEXEU minister David Jones
speech to the Freight Transport Association 150317
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/david-jones-speech-to-the-freight-transport-association-fta
(praised
the Assocation’s excellent Brexit Manifesto)
“cannot
go into too much detail as to what our negotiating position will be.”
New
relationship with the EU and Customs Union
We
are seeking a new and equal partnership with the EU – between an independent,
self-governing, Global Britain and our friends, neighbours and allies in the
EU.
This
includes a bold and ambitious Free Trade Agreement that allows cross-border
trade to be as frictionless as possible.
We
want to have a new, mutually beneficial customs agreement with the EU that
supports these objectives.
But
we have a completely open mind on how they will be achieved.
There
are a number of options for any new customs arrangement, including a completely
new agreement, or for the UK to retain some elements of the existing
arrangements.
...
The
British and Irish economies are deeply integrated, through trade and
cross-border arrangements, as well as through the free flow of goods,
utilities, services and people.
No
one wants to see a return to the hard customs borders of the past.
http://www.brugesgroup.com/images/papers/whatitwilllooklike.pdf
Prospects for EFTA-EEA and
transitional access to the Single Market?
http://www.newsinenglish.no/2017/01/26/eus-negotiator-vows-to-defend-eea-deal/
Solberg
told NRK that the British seem to want full market access without customs
barriers and free flow of labour. The EU is promising hard negotiations in
return on a new trade deal with Britain, but Barnier promised to fight for
Norway as a “third-country” in the negotiations.
While
Norway won’t have its own negotiators at the table, Barnier claimed Norway
won’t be stuck on
the
sidelines. In discussions with Britain, “we will work hand in hand with the EEA
and Norway,” Barnier said. That reassured Bakke-Jensen after his own meeting
with Barnier.
“We
have clarified that what we think is important, is also important for the EU,”
Bakke-Jensen said. It’s also critical for Norway to hammer out its own new
trade deal with Britain: “Our first priority is to get an agreement in place
with Britain,” Norway’s minister in charge of business and trade, Monica
Mæland, told newspaper Dagens Næringsliv (DN).
“I
believe we must be ambitious enough to work for an agreement with Britain that
will be at least as
good
as the one we have with the EU,” Bakke Jensen told NRK. On Sunday, he was
heading to Reykjavik for talks with Iceland’s new foreign minister, Gudlaugur
Thor Thordarson, to discuss strengthening further cooperation through the EEA.
[THIS
" at least as good " relationship would be difficult to achieve,
unless the Britain-Norway
relationship
was to continue through EFTA-EEA?]
Note
the emphasis on "our most important trading partner". This could
indicate Norway being
supportive.
http://norwegianfirstnews.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/it-is-priority-to-defend-eea-agreement.html
Our
first priority is to put in place an agreement with the british, our most
important trading partner,
said
Norwegian trade and industry minister Monica Mæland to DN on Wednesday.
http://in.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-norway-barnier-idINKBN15921B .
The
European Union's Brexit negotiator sought on Wednesday to reassure the bloc's
partners Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein that their interests would be a
"priority" when the EU breaks up with Britain. The three non-EU
members have the benefit of free movement of people, goods, services and
capital within the EU market of 500 million people with Brussels setting the
rules that govern all aspects of the joint European Economic Area (EEA).
"The
best relationship with the EU must remain membership and after that it must be
EEA
membership,"
Michel Barnier, a former French foreign minister, told reporters after talks
with
Norwegian
Prime Minister Erna Solberg.
[BARNIER's
comment would met the "criterion" that the revised Britain-EU
relationship must be
"inferior"
to membership. Also, If an EFTA-EEA scenario is not being suggested, it would
be strange that Barnier would be involving the EFTA states.]
Britain
also does not implement many of the control measures it is legally allowed to
by Brussels, such as requiring people from other EU countries to register with
authorities so that accurate numbers can be determined.
Wants
and needs of various trade groups: Making a success of Brexit
https://www.thecityuk.com/research/brexit-and-uk-based-financial-and-related-professional-services/
http://airlinesuk.org/speech-secretary-state-transport-airlines-uk-annual-dinner/
https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/europe/
http://www.britishirishchamber.com/2016/05/03/eu-insist-swift-divorce/
Mrs
May also highlighted French interest in a good Brexit deal, pointing out that
the UK is France's fifth-largest export market with bilateral trade worth more
than 50 billion euros last year.
Macron: Entente Cordiale or
Mac the knife?
Mr
Macron acknowledged that Mrs May’s pledge to remain a good friend of Europe
after Brexit had improved the atmosphere, and said that it is imperative to
reach a settlement that “does not damage everything”.
Yet
it is hard to see how he hopes to preserve this cordial relationship if the EU
takes a purist stance that leads to the erection of bilateral trade barriers.
It does not insist on the letter of the four freedoms in its free trade deal
with the sovereign state of Canada.
...
Mr
Macron also indicated he is ready to allow Britain to keep border controls -
and unwanted migrants - on the other side of the Channel after Brexit.
He
suggested last year that if the UK voted for Brexit, Paris could tear up a
crucial agreement which permits British border officials to operate on French
soil, saying: "The day this relationship unravels, migrants will no longer
be in Calais."
But
in the talks with Mrs May he was willing to work to "improve" the
deal, signed in Le Touquet in 2003.
*
Macron’s support base is most volatile
*
Rival Fillon watering down privatisation talk
*
If Bayrou stands, Macron could lose vital centrist votes
https://leftfootforward.org/2017/02/what-would-a-french-president-macron-mean-for-brexit/
[Boris]
Johnson has insisted the UK’s financial services sector will not be stripped of
the passporting rights, which exist within the single market, saying that the
City of London will remain a global financial centre.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4245972/Macron-promises-Theresa-fair-Brexit.html
Speaking
outside No 10 after his talks, Mr Macron said he assured Mrs May of his
willingness to seek a 'fair execution of Brexit' which protects and defends
French and European interests.
And
he reaffirmed his intention to co-operate with the UK on defence under an
'improved' Le Touquet deal.
And
in a win for Mrs May, Mr Macron also signalled a u-turn on his threat to tear
up border agreements with the UK that see passports checked in France before
passengers cross the Channel.
He
had said last year that if the UK backed Brexit the deal would “unravel” and
any migrants would be sent straight to Britain rather than detained in Calais.
But
he rowed back and said he wished to “improve” the Le Touquet agreement that was
signed in 2003 and is recognised by the UN.
http://time.com/4374548/brexit-eu-referendum-emmanuel-macron/
*
Wants more Europe, full Single Market, more protection, less bureaucracy
Macron
is clearly keen on keeping his distance from the ruling party and from his
mentor, Hollande.
Macron
rallies are not rock concerts, the crowds don’t go wild and only clap and cheer
with restraint. His speeches are long and dull at times, but supporters don’t
seem to mind.
Far
from "the bellicose drive of a section of opinion" to want to make
the British pay, Emmanuel Macron wants in spite of all that "it is
serious, serious": "There must not be any consequence
France’s
parliamentary election
The
French Republic’s political system is so fashioned that parliamentary elections
tend to be seen as a sideshow to the all-important race for the presidency.
Under the Fifth Republic, they have generally handed the newly elected
president a majority in parliament, and thus a chance to form a like-minded
government. That pattern would be disrupted should the presidential election
offer a surprise in May. While an upset by Le Pen or Macron cannot be excluded,
neither would command a natural majority in parliament: the former because her
National Front party has no chance of winning a majority of seats, the latter
because he doesn’t even have a party.
The
prospect of a “cohabitation” between a president from one party and a prime
minister from another is generally viewed negatively in France, leading to
fears of gridlock. But most French people now have fond memories of the last
left-right “cohabitation”, between 1997 and 2002, when the economy was growing,
unemployment was low and France's multi-racial football team won the World Cup.
Despite
Le Pen's charge towards a so-called "Frexit", the majority of French
citizens reportedly wish to remain in the EU with its membership enshrined in
the constitution. Therefore, Le Pen would be required to seek approval for
constitutional amendments from the National Assembly and the Senate before
being able to host a referendum which the majority of citizens are likely to
reject.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/frexit-italexit-support-eu-dwindles-france-italy/ 200616
41%
of French want UK in EU
Only
52% of French want France in EU
(Bertelsmann Foundation)
https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/de/themen/aktuelle-meldungen/2016/juni/brexit-referendum-mehrheit-der-eu-buerger-hofft-auf-verbleib-grossbritanniens/
http://www.euronews.com/2016/08/23/why-france-is-the-most-likely-to-be-the-next-to-quit-the-eu
http://www.tns-sofres.com/publications/du-brexit-au-frexit
45
percent of those polled wanted a similar EU referendum in France, with 44
percent against 230816
The Money Question: Budget
and other payments issues in negotiations
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/782517/Brexit-EU-Army-Brussels-Battlegroups-100-billion
(Speculative
- defence spending liability is only incurred by participants. There is an
opt-in or veto)
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=80999
Leave
Alliance – Monograph 3: Financial contributions after Brexit.
https://www.cliffordchance.com/briefings/2017/02/brexit_will_the_ukhavetopaytoleavetheeu.html
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-barnier-idUKKBN16T207
Separately,
European Investment Bank President Werner Hoyer said Britain's bill for
settling its financial position with the EIB could be very costly, but he
called for a "civilised" divorce that could avoid such an outcome.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-eib-idUKKBN16T259
the EIB's chairman said on Wednesday, calling
for "civilised" divorce talks that could avoid such an outcome.
The
cost could amount to as much as 65 billion euros (56.44 billion pounds), by
some estimates. That would be above and beyond any other monies due to the
European Union.
Britain
is one of the four main shareholders of the bank, which provides finance and
expertise for projects that contribute to European Union policy objectives.
[These
are set to include] a desire for the UK to continue contributing into the EU
budget until the end of 2020, along with outstanding pension liabilities and
loan guarantees.
But
Mrs May informed MPs she had “noted” a recent House of Lords report that
concluded the UK does not have to stump up any cash to Brussels at the end of
the two-year Article 50 timetable.
Tory
MP Jacob Rees-Mogg asked the Prime Minister yesterday whether she had had “time
to consider the excellent House of Lords report that says we have no legal
obligation to pay any money whatsoever to the EU”.
Fellow
Tory backbencher Peter Bone later insisted he would have to “disagree” with Mr
Rees-Mogg on whether money should change hands on Britain’s exit. He said:
“Since we joined the EEC (European Economic Community) in 1973, we have paid in
£184 billion. “That is the net contribution - the actual amount that we have
paid in after taking into account any money that we got back. “When people get
a divorce, do they not split the net amount in two? That would mean that £92
billion should be paid back to us.
House
of Lords EU Finance Committee on financial obligations - Brexit & Budget
(HL125)
https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/12502.htm
https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/125.pdf
The
relationship between EU law and international law is now set out in the EU
Treaties themselves, as well as the judgments of the CJEU. In a judgment in
1992[226] the CJEU ruled that “the European Community must
respect
international law in the exercise of its powers.” Since the entry into force of
the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, Article 3(5) TEU declares that the EU “shall
contribute to [ … ] the strict observance and the development of international
law.”
[ref
226 Case C-286/90, Poulsen and Diva Navigation]
[ref
227 That said, when international law is in direct conflict with a fundamental
right safeguarded in the EU
Treaties
or EU Charter, the CJEU has held that, in order to preserve the autonomy of EU
law, the EU
Treaties
prevail. See Cases C-402 and 415/05 Kadi]
ALSO,
(prev)
the
EU has what the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) describes as an “autonomous
legal order”, which is separate and distinct from international law, and over
which the CJEU has sole jurisdiction.[225] Within that autonomous legal order
is a “hierarchy of norms”, at the pinnacle of which are the EU Treaties. From
these all EU legislation derives: every Regulation, Directive or Decision is
made pursuant to an Article in the EU Treaties. The EU Charter of Fundamental
Rights has the same status as the EU Treaties
[ref
225 See, for example, Opinion 1/76, or case C-459/03 Commission v Ireland]
...
Article
50 TEU does not need to be interpreted in the light of the Vienna Convention,
but on its terms alone.
...
It
follows that, under EU law, Article 50 TEU allows the UK to leave the EU
without being liable for outstanding financial obligations under the EU budget,
unless a withdrawal agreement is concluded which resolves this issue. (This
advice does not address the political consequences of the UK withdrawing from
the EU without settling outstanding payments to the EU budget and related
financial instruments.)
...
125.
Dr Sánchez-Barrueco acknowledged that there was a conflict between Article 50
TEU, which provided that the CJEU’s jurisdiction should cease to apply to the
UK, and Article 344 Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU),
whereby Member States agreed to solve their disputes through the Court of
Justice and not by other means. She argued that preference should be given to
Article 50:
“Because
the purpose of the Treaty on European Union, in which Article 50 is enshrined,
is to organise the relationship between sovereign states so as to create the
international organisation, but the purpose of the Treaty on the Functioning of
the European Union, in which Article 344 is enshrined, is of a more
administrative nature—to organise the.... “
Article
50 was a relevant provision and therefore prevailed over other provisions of a
more general scope contained in the Vienna Convention.
COMMITTEE
VIEW
Article
50 TEU should be interpreted in the light of Article 70 of the Vienna
Convention.
Article
50 therefore takes precedence over Article 70(1)(b) of the Vienna Convention.
No
provision is made for ensuring that EU legal obligations on the withdrawing
State persist after the Treaties cease to apply.
The
EU Treaties are at the pinnacle of the hierarchy of EU law; all subordinate EU
legislation derives from them. Once the Treaties cease to apply to the UK, all
EU legal obligations found in Regulations, Directives and Decisions and other
EU acts cease to apply under EU law.
•
This would include the UK’s current and future legal obligations under the Own
Resources Decision, the MFF, and the annual budget.
.......
It
follows that, under EU law, Article 50 TEU allows the UK to leave the EU
without being liable for outstanding financial obligations under the EU budget
or other financial instruments, unless a withdrawal agreement is concluded
which resolves this issue.
•
Individual EU Member States might seek to bring a case against the UK for the
payments of outstanding liabilities under principles of public international
law, but, as our witnesses explained, international law is slow to litigate and
hard to enforce. In addition, it is questionable whether an international court
or tribunal could have jurisdiction. Article 344 TFEU prohibits EU Member
States from submitting the legal interpretation of the EU Treaties to a court
other than the CJEU.
153.
Professor Tridimas noted that pension expenditure was part of the EU budget, and
highlighted the principle of universality, namely that contributions made by
Member States were not hypothecated for any particular expenditure:
“There
is no correlation between the contribution that Germany makes, for example, and
the pensions that the German [EU] civil servants receive.”
However,
Article 83 of the EU Staff Regulations expressly stated that benefits paid out
of the pension scheme were to be charged to the EU budget, and that the Member
States were to guarantee them jointly. He concluded that the UK would “remain
liable for any pension benefits that will have been accrued at the point it
decides to leave the EU.”
[PT/MT]
Article 50 does not determine the question so it would have to be resolved, in
the absence of agreement, by reference to the specific provisions of the EU
Treaties and the general principles of EU law, as interpreted by the ECJ
The
European Union wants to agree with Britain on a formula for calculating how
much it will owe the bloc after it leaves, rather than defining a specific sum
in advance, EU officials have said.
The European
Commission’s chief negotiator for Brexit, Michel Barnier, briefed the 27
remaining countries on Monday (6 February) on the methodology the EU executive
was considering.
At the
seminar, closed to the press, he said some key components of the bill were
still undecided or unavailable, making it impossible to fix a precise sum now,
people familiar with the content of the meeting said.
EU
governments are likely to agree on the formula they want the Commission to
employ by the time they issue a detailed negotiating mandate for the EU
executive, possibly around May, the first official said.
Whatever
final exit bill is agreed would be paid by Britain in instalments rather than a
lump sum.
Britain will
also probably have to contribute to pensions of EU officials, British or
otherwise, and address the issue of longer-term guarantees provided by the EU
budget for institutions such as the European Investment Bank.
The
Commission is considering basing the calculations on an average of several
years – but the question is which ones, and how to reflect fluctuations in the
pound’s exchange rate.
Moreover,
national contributions are calculated on the basis of Gross National Income
(GNI), which can be revised even four years later.
Deal or no deal: The
WTO-rules only option
Donald
Tusk, told the European parliament: “A no-deal scenario would be bad for
everyone
http://www.politico.eu/article/tusk-eu-wont-be-intimidated-by-uks-brexit-threats-article-50-theresa-may/
Our
goal is to have a smooth divorce and a good framework for the future.” ....“I
will do everything in my power to make sure that the EU and the U.K. will be
close friends in the future,” he said
http://www.cityam.com/258273/citys-importance-europe-helps-prime-minister-theresa-may
Now
a leak from the European parliament reveals yet more powerful voices waking up
to this reality. The economic and monetary affairs committee’s paper warns:
“Given the considerable interdependence between the UK and the EU economy and
financial systems, it is critical that a workable agreement is achieved.”
http://www.politico.eu/article/germanys-brexit-team-and-its-vip-guests/
Germany’s
former Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich, a 59-year-old Bavarian, leads a
new Brexit working group of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CSU-CDU
We
need the Brits, for example, when it comes to security or making sure that the
flow of goods and trade runs smoothly between the U.K. and the EU.”
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6491/brexit_britain_won_t_be_punished
Even the pro-EU Governor of
the Bank of England, Mark Carney has admitted recently the UK is not only growing faster than he
anticipated, but Brexit is actually a greater economic risk to the EU’s economy
than it is to ours. Why? Because the UK is the EU’s investment banker, and any
interference with liquidity and capacity support could totally destabilise the
EU’s own finances. Therefore, it is correct to say punishment is a zero-sum
game.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-meeting-with-prime-minister-muscat-of-malta-13-march-2017
“Both
Prime Ministers expressed a desire to secure an outcome from the negotiations
that works for all sides.”
http://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-brexit-bill-not-reasonable/
Brexit
Secretary David Davis said the aim of his department “is to deliver Plan A” — a
comprehensive free trade deal.
Asked
why he warned cabinet colleagues that the risk of having to walk away with no
deal “is very real,” Davis said, “It’s our responsibility as a government to
make preparations for all possible outcomes. We’re going into a negotiation, we
don’t control the whole thing. By far and away the highest probability is plan
A or some variant of it. “It’s not a catastrophe to contemplate things. You
contemplate things so that you avoid them or you mitigate them. If you went out
on the street today and said to the ordinary member of the public, should the
government prepare for all outcomes, they would say of course.”
Analysis
of what might happen in different sectors in the absence of an agreement
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86417
Brexit:
trading (not) under WTO rules
"there is no developed economy on the planet which trades
with the EU only under WTO rules."
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86360
A
failure to reach an agreement, or where Madam May exercises her "walk
away" option, could require emergency administrative action on the part of
the UK Government, simply to regularise the operations of UK-based airlines.
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86359
(Chemical
industry/REACH) if Mrs May "walks away", literally overnight what
would otherwise have been an orderly process will become a mad scramble.
Manufacturers would face a short-term collapse in trade, with an uncertain
recovery
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86362
If
Mrs May decides to adopt her "walk away" strategy, then – officially
– our establishments disappear. Food exports stop
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86420
"Brexit customs checks could land UK with 24% price rise", an
issue that could arise "even with free trade deal".
[link: https://behindthepaywallblog.wordpress.com/2017/03/26/eu-migrants-keep-benefits-after-brexit/
bureaucracy and delays “can increase transaction costs by an estimated 2% to
24% of the value of traded goods]
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86370
Brexit:
Operation Stack here we come...
customs problems could cripple supply chains, leaving supermarkets short of
supplies
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86396
Paul
Drechsler, president of the Confederation for British
Industry, telling us that falling back on WTO rules would have a host of
adverse effects on domestic and continental businesses.
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86397
The
trade groups are asleep at the wheel and are allowing us to head for the rocks
at full speed, without so much as a murmur of protest.
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86361
(Medicines)
However, should Madam May go walkabout, all bets are off. If the UK
unilaterally broke off the negotiations and walked away from the table, it
would leave the necessary amendments hanging. Without a mutual recognition
agreement or some other device, the EU would be within its rights to refuse any
products relying on UK authorisations. Perversely, EU products would remain
authorised for sale in the UK.
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86364
The
online dispute resolution, however, is different. It relies on systems
furnished and maintained by the Commission, accessible only to EU Member States
and Efta members – who make a small contribution to
the upkeep of the system. Ostensibly, when we leave the EU, we will drop out of
this system... departure from the Digital Single Market
https://www.global-counsel.co.uk/blog/unscheduled-stops 160317 Stephen Adams of Global Counsel
To
be sure, it is not very desirable in the long-term for the UK to be unable to
completely stabilise its MFN profile. But the failure to do so does not mean
the UK will be unable to trade. Assuming
the UK has not had its new schedules tacitly or explicitly acknowledged by all
WTO members at the point of leaving the EU, it will simply trade on a
provisional schedule of its proposed design. This provisional schedule will
clearly be subject to possible change if successfully contested. However, those
that sell to the UK will not be dis-incentivised by this fact, as these
provisional tariff schedules are only ever likely to be revised downwards. As
long as the UK applied provisional tariffs on an MFN basis to other WTO states
(which it would), its basic rights in export markets would be on solid ground.
The
process of establishing the UK’s WTO MFN trading profile is clearly important,
but it has been turned in some parts of the UK media into a ‘license’ without
which rights are withheld. For
businesses worrying about actual trade this is very unhelpful. What is true
about confirming WTO schedules for the UK is that they will almost certainly be
contested and the process could drag on a long while. It may possibly create
issues for the UK in attracting future FTA partners (but probably won’t). But
for the overwhelming bulk of day to day trade it will mean very little.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/pascal-lamy-way-forward-after-brexit
Q:
What about the role of the World Trade Organization? You were director-general
for eight years, you know it very well. Do you think that if the British were
forced to fall back on just WTO rules, is that easily done?
A:
I think it can be easily done, provided there is a bit of goodwill on all
sides. WTO lawyers can be reasonably pragmatic and if we agree that the main
thing is that trade should be hampered as little as possible, I think that’s
not the most complex problem we’ll have to solve. You just have to know that
there is a level of trade openness today, which is the [EU] internal market.
...
Q:
But the short-term issues that will have to be settled will involve some very
difficult questions, including money, the budget, how much is paid; including
also, presumably, a sense of the jurisprudence – who will, if you like,
regulate the disputes of things. Doesn’t that have to be settled quickly?
A:
You’re absolutely correct. The budget thing… it’s a question of numbers at the
end of the day. Once the principle that the UK has financial obligations it
will respect – which should be a normal thing to do – is agreed, numbers can
always be adjusted. When a negotiation is about numbers, usually there is a
solution.
https://www.cliffordchance.com/briefings/2017/02/brexit_will_the_ukhavetopaytoleavetheeu.html
UKTPO
THE WTO: - A SAFETY NET FOR A POST-BREXIT UK TRADE POLICY?
https://www.sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gateway/file.php?name=briefing-paper-1.pdf&site=18
If the
reality is that the EU-27 would not allow a new trade relationship to be
negotiated until the UK has left the EU the default position will be that both
sides treat each other on MFN terms, which is unlikely to be desirable for
either side. An alternative is to extend the status quo.
But that might be unacceptable in the UK if it includes
the free movement of labour (not a WTO subject per se) and unacceptable to the
EU-27 if it does not. Other WTO members may complain that MFN is violated by
such an extension of the status quo, but any associated WTO dispute proceedings
will take a lot of time, so that even if some WTO members bring a case, in
practice the UK government and the EU will have time to deal with the issues.
Indeed, WTO members might allow both parties transitional periods or temporary
waivers to allow the EU-UK negotiations to continue after B-day without
pressure from Geneva. Of course that does assume goodwill on all sides which
should not be taken for granted. The post B-day relationship with countries
that have FTAs with the EU may paradoxically be easier because they may be more
relaxed about informally discussing allowing the existing bilateral
arrangements to continue beyond B-day while a formal FTA or similar agreement
is drawn up. Such goodwill is likely to be a function of political factors as
well as of whether or not the partner country involved thinks it will benefit
from reverting to MFN. Hence the final outcomes are likely to vary across
partners.
…
the UK’s “WTO option” in services will require
negotiations with all individual EU member states as well as with the
Commission.
The extent to which the UK’s access to the EU market
would deteriorate based upon the EU’s GATS schedule is difficult to assess
because market access based on currently applied measures is typically better
than in the GATS schedules….these may be quite favourable but could be removed
at any time and thus are afflicted by considerable uncertainty
…
[Government
procurement agreement] If the UK does not ratify/accede to the GPA in advance,
B-day threatens to reduce exports and create serious value-for-money challenges
in the UK.
(Agricultural subsidies)
EU commitments to the WTO have not yet been updated to take
account of the enlargements of 2004 and 2007.
CLARITY
ON 'NO DEAL' 150317
Explaining
Mrs May’s preference for no deal over a bad deal, Mr Davis explained: “The
Prime Minister said, in terms, no deal is better than a bad deal.
“Why
did she say that? She said that because in the emotional aftermath of the
referendum there were lots of threats of punishment deals and all the rest of
it.
“We
wanted to be clear we could actually manage this in such a way as to be better
than a bad deal and that is true. I can't quantify it for you in detail yet, I
may well be able to do so in about a year's time.
“It's
not as frightening frankly as some people think, but it's not as simple as some
people think.”
...
Mr
Davis admitted no Brexit deal would be “not as good an outcome” as the
comprehensive free trade deal Mrs May is hoping to reach with the EU, adding:
“Which is why we're trying for that.”
Asking
the Brexit Secretary why his view appeared to differ to Foreign Secretary Boris
Johnson’s insistence leaving the EU with no deal would be “perfectly ok”, Mr
Davis seemed to take a sly dig at his fellow minister.
He
said: “I do my job on the basis of facts, data, research, analysis and
operational planning. Off the back of that I will give answers that are
accurate and that are factual.
“Not
throwaway lines in interview, factual answers.”
An
hour before Mr Davis’s appearance in front of the committee, European Council
president Donald Tusk posted a series of messages on Twitter insisting Brussels
would not be “intimidated” by the Government’s position.
The
EU boss wrote: “Will do everything in my power to make sure that UK, EU are
close friends after #Brexit and stress that EU's door will always remain open.
“We
will not be intimidated by threats that no #Brexit deal is good for UK &
bad for EU. No deal bad for everyone, above all for UK.”
http://www.euractiv.com/section/all/news/that-bus-has-gone-eu-sees-no-brexit-u-turn-now/
In
October, Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister who chairs the Council
of EU national leaders… warned them, “soft Brexit” was not an option – the
choice for London would be “hard Brexit or no Brexit”.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-germany-idUKKBN16P0G3
The
impact of a "hard Brexit" on Germany would be severe, the president
of Germany's DIHK Chambers of Industry and Commerce said in a media interview
published on Saturday.
Eric
Schweitzer told the Funke media group that Britain was Germany's third most
important export partner and shipments had already dropped by nine percent in
the fourth quarter.
He
said the European Union should take a tough line in Brexit negotiations with
Britain
The
UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO), a partnership between Chatham House and
the University of Sussex produced Jun 2016
UK
Trade Policy Observatory, Briefing Paper 1: The World Trade Organisation: A
Safety Net for a Post-Brexit UK Trade Policy??
https://www.sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gateway/file.php?name=briefing-paper-1.pdf&site=18
THE
WORLD TRADE ORGANISATION:
A
SAFETY NET FOR A POST-BREXIT UK TRADE POLICY?
Pascal
Lamy quotes, 170317
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/pascal-lamy-way-forward-after-brexit
Q:
What about the role of the World Trade Organization? You were director-general
for eight years, you know it very well. Do you think that if the British were
forced to fall back on just WTO rules, is that easily done?
A:
I think it can be easily done, provided there is a bit of goodwill on all sides.
WTO lawyers can be reasonably pragmatic and if we agree that the main thing is
that trade should be hampered as little as possible, I think that’s not the
most complex problem we’ll have to solve. You just have to know that there is a
level of trade openness today, which is the [EU] internal market.
...
Q:
But the short-term issues that will have to be settled will involve some very
difficult questions, including money, the budget, how much is paid; including
also, presumably, a sense of the jurisprudence – who will, if you like,
regulate the disputes of things. Doesn’t that have to be settled quickly?
A:
You’re absolutely correct. The budget thing… it’s a question of numbers at the
end of the day. Once the principle that the UK has financial obligations it
will respect – which should be a normal thing to do – is agreed, numbers can
always be adjusted. When a negotiation is about numbers, usually there is a
solution.
WTO
Marrakesh Analytical Index – interpretations on goals and obligations of GATT
Treaties
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/analytic_index_e/wto_agree_01_e.htm
(especial
note of references 8, 9, 11, 13 –
security and predictability of ‘the reciprocal and
mutually advantageous arrangements directed to the substantial reduction of
tariffs and other barriers to trade’ is an object and purpose of the WTO
Agreement
concessions made by WTO Members should be
interpreted so as to further the general objective of the expansion of trade in
goods and the substantial reduction of tariffs. arrangements entered into by
Members be reciprocal and mutually advantageous
the
purpose of such agreements should be to facilitate trade between the
constituent territories and not to raise barriers to the trade of other Members
with such territories; and that in their formation or enlargement the
parties to them should to the greatest possible
extent avoid creating adverse effects on the trade of other Members;’
regional
trade agreements and those of the GATT and the WTO have always been
complementary, and therefore should be interpreted consistently with one
another, with a view to increasing trade and not to raising barriers to trade,
thereby arguing against an interpretation that would allow, on the occasion of
the formation of a customs union, for the introduction of quantitative
restrictions)
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/japan-lays-out-guide-Brexit 060916
The
paper is couched in terms of cooperation and partnership. Japanese inward
investment into the UK has been one of the major industrial success stories of
the last 40 years, with the 1984 decision of Nissan to build its car plant at
Sunderland the turning point. The Japanese government and Japanese companies
want to preserve this post-Brexit. But that means keeping radical changes to
the current environment that might emerge from the Brexit talks to a minimum.
Specifically, the Japanese want, among other things, to maintain current tariff
rates and customs procedures, access to skills (including from within the EU),
the current provision of financial services (50 per cent of the value of
British manufactured goods is accounted for by services), the current
arrangements for information protection and data exchange, unified intellectual
property protection, harmonized standards and regulations, and access to the EU
R&D budget and joint programmes. These requests are aimed at EU negotiators
as well as at the UK. A 10-page annex goes into even more detail, sector by
sector.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/event/uk-eu-trade-relations-after-brexit-too-many-red-lines
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article58231.html
“We
have to avoid that the British example will be followed by other member states.
That’s been the position of the German government.” German Finance Minister
Wolfgang Schäuble - 20th Feb 2017
"Britain
must not be better off outside the European Union after Brexit" - French
Senate - 19th Feb 2017
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/will-brexit-butcher-the-banking-system/
J.P.
Morgan head Jamie Dimon
80
per cent of the European sovereign debt market is in London. If governments in
the EU cut themselves off from this market, it is hard to see where in the
eurozone would make up the shortfall.
Minford
and Miller review ‘WTO options’ vs the status quo. Makes a very big assumption
in all options that non-tariff barriers have been eliminated
Reassurance
from the FT’s Wolfgang Munchau
https://www.ft.com/content/5b7690ce-0b08-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
A
sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think
So
what about the ultimate argument — that the EU needs to punish the UK to set a
disincentive for others to leave? This is complete piffle. (explains why)
I
am really struggling to identify a single insurmountable obstacle to a deal.
Cashing in on Brexit?
Apple
software prices up 25%, Microsoft up to 15%. Vauxhall car prices up 2.5%
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/cars/article-4219778/New-car-prices-risen-5-cent-Brexit.html
[What
Car] The study said the jump was the result of a 'perfect storm' of rising
inflation and industry efforts to increase dealer profitability.
....
The
motoring title reviewed vehicle prices by segment - for example, superminis,
SUVs and sports cars - and multiplied
them by official sales figures provided by the Society of Motor Manufacturers
and Traders, the UK's motor industry representative.
On
the road prices had increased by 5.2 per cent on average from June 2016
compared to January 2017.
...
For
instance, luxury cars were 0.2 per cent cheaper in January than they were in
June 2016, while prices for executive saloons had only increased by 0.8 per
cent. But more significant spikes elsewhere had pulled the total average
higher, with performance cars and MPVs up by 8.4 per cent and large SUVs 12.3
per cent more expensive than they were seven months ago.
The
motoring magazine said the increases were 'partly a by-product of the Brexit
vote'.
That's
because the drop in value of the pound sparked by the referendum, results on
June 23 last year have had a direct impact on the cost of importing cars and
the raw materials that go into their production
Optimistic
atmosphere over Brexit ‘opportunity’ for Shropshire farmers
Shropshire
farmers at the NFU Conference in Birmingham this week said there was a buoyant
atmosphere at the event, and welcomed an improved performance from Environment
Minister Andrea Leadsom.
...
David
Mills, a broiler farmer with 180,000 birds near Craven Arms, added: “She is
speaking a lot more positively, with a bit of understanding of what her role is
and what she has taken on.
“Trade
and labour are the most important things. This labour situation people haven’t
really got their heads around yet, and perhaps won’t until it becomes a story
of food not being lifted from the fields and things not being harvested or
processed. We rely on that labour massively.
“There’s
lot of questions and very few answers at the present time, but I think the
industry is very strongly behind the fact that we are going for Brexit and
there has to be a positive future.”
Carol
Griffiths, a mixed farmer with sheep and crops from the Clun Valley, said she
felt farmers were well-prepared to battle through the fluctuating Brexit talks.
“If
ever there was an industry that copes with uncertainty, farming is it,” she
said.
Malcolm
Roberts, a sheep farmer from near Oswestry who is also chairman of the NFU’s
West Midlands board, added: “People realise that Brexit brings opportunities.
Statistics show the agricultural community voted for Brexit, and there’s a lot
of upbeat people that think this is an opportunity, and we have to grasp them
as well as we can.”
http://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/2017/02/16/letter-reap-rewards-of-leaving-eu/
In
the same business news I see that a prominent UK bank has carried out a survey
of its farming customers to find that the majority expect Brexit will give them
more opportunities to export and with less bureaucracy
Announcing
the Government’s new International Action Plan for Food and Drink, Mrs Leadsom
identified nine markets across 18 countries with the best potential for growth.
Farmers
for Action (FFA) and Tenant Farmers Association (TFA) needs...
This
page updated: 27 Mar 2017