March 2019 issue: references, notes and
quotes.
Worth also reading alongside New Year issue and references for comprehensive background material over the themes below and wider
negotiations issues.
Index
Withdrawal
Agreement and Political Declaration on Future Relationship - key documents
Readiness, National Audit Office
(NAO) reports
Negotiations and legal aspects
UN and WTO agreements - obligations
and safeguards
-------------------------
Typo:
Page1 col1: Read ‘operational government units’ for ‘operational governments’
-------------------------
General
set of Withdrawal Agreement documents, EU TF50
Draft
agreement on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU as agreed at negotiators'
level on 14 November 2018, including text of Article 132 (26 Nov 2018)
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/37095/draft_withdrawal_agreement_incl_art132.pdf
(14
Nov 2018 early draft https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf)
Political
Declaration on Future Relationship draft (non-binding)
Commons
briefings
Brexit:
Proposals for the future UK-EU relationship
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8483
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8483/CBP-8483.pdf
The
'Strasbourg package', assurances on
backstop
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8525
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8525/CBP-8525.pdf
Dr
Alan Wager, ‘Cave-in or Chaos?’
The
government, in short, have very competently sold the idea to MPs that it is too
incompetent to adequately deliver no deal.
…
This
no deal strategy has two parts in the House of Commons.
…
Firstly,
the lack of preparation to deliver the necessary legislation for a no deal.
Secondly, framing the prime minister’s Brexit deal as a “deal or no deal”
option when MPs get their final “meaningful vote”.
Bruce
Oliver Newsome
http://commentcentral.co.uk/remainers-both-cause-and-exploit-brexit-unreadiness/
Fleet
Street Fox (Susie Boniface), Mirror article on unreadiness, January
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-already-been-cancelled-heres-13896286
...Of
the 9 [Bills remaining, the one closest to being finished is the Trade Bill -
and the House of Lords just voted to shelve it because it lacked detail.
According
to the government, this defeat means we are now unable to move to World Trade
Organisation rules in the event of a no deal Brexit. The government has been
asked for this extra detail for 15 months, and has failed to come up with any.
...
March
29 was a Brexiteer threat to bring people in line, and it has utterly failed.
It's inevitable that the British government will ask for Article 50 to be
extended. And for the EU to say: "Why should we?"
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/how-government-can-deal-parliament-brexit-deadlines
Parliament
has a key role in preparing for a no deal Brexit. The Government needs to pass
new legislation – both primary and secondary – to establish new policy regimes
in key policy areas such as agriculture and fisheries after the UK leaves the
EU. There are still six pieces of primary legislation, nearly 500 more
statutory instruments, as well as international treaties for Parliament to
scrutinise.
All
that with just 30 scheduled sitting days in Parliament remaining before 29
March (from 8 February). Working back from that date, there are some key
deadlines the Government will be aiming for. But if time gets really squeezed,
it will have the option of resorting to ‘work-arounds’ – although many of these
are far from ideal.
...
But
despite MPs being told that they couldn’t have their holidays because of
Brexit, the House of Commons adjourned at 3:30pm on 6 February, no Brexit
debates took place this week and only the second reading of the Financial
Services Bill is scheduled ahead of the vote on the Prime Minister’s next steps
next Thursday.
Despite
the extra days, the scale of the task still remains huge. Although around 400
statutory instruments have been tabled, only 119 have actually passed, so
nearly 500 still need to enter into law. Roughly half of the total need to go
through delegated legislation committees (under affirmative procedure),
requiring ministerial time and willing MPs.
The
other half of the statutory instruments have been tabled under the negative
procedure, used in non-controversial cases. MPs and peers have 40 days to vote
to ‘annul’ them, and the Government by convention usually leaves at least 21
before bringing them into force to allow parliamentary scrutiny. If the UK
wants these statutory instruments to be in place for 29 March, the latest
sitting day they can be laid is need to be laid is 7 March..
...
Under
the EU Withdrawal Act, in “urgent deficiencies cases” ministers can pass
affirmative statutory instruments immediately. Both Houses would have 28
calendar days to approve an instrument passed in this way after they have
entered into law (assuming Parliament sits as usual) otherwise it would cease
to apply.
This
could prove risky with a hostile Parliament: if they were voted down, it could
lead to a legal gap further down the line. The Government could also choose to
set aside the 40-day waiting period for negative statutory instruments if it
felt that time was of the essence, but this would also likely annoy MPs already
frustrated by how late in the day Brexit legislation is being passed.
Treaties,
meanwhile, will need to be laid by 20 February to give Parliament its 21-day period.
CRAG allows the Government to avoid the 21 sitting days in “exceptional cases”,
but ministers have so far told select committees they will not use that power.
A U-turn will further undermine the already strained trust between the
Government and Parliament.
While
time is running out between now and 29 March, there are ways that the
Government can navigate a way through the immediate deadlines that it faces.
The cost, however, could be an erosion of any remaining goodwill in Parliament.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/uk-deserves-know-how-ready-we-really-are-no-deal
Legislation
progress chart
Commons
briefing on preparations,
“What
if there’s no Brexit deal?”
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8397/CBP-8397.pdf
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8397#fullreport
As
of early February 2019 around 400 Brexit-related SIs had been laid under the EU
(Withdrawal) Act out of an estimated total of around 600.
Extending
Article 50: could Brexit be delayed? [also good record of PM's gushing
statements]
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8496/CBP-8496.pdf
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8496
247
of an estimated 600 statutory instruments required to prepare the statute book
for exit day had made their way through Parliament as of 12 March 2019.... As
of 12 March 2019, 483 statutory instruments had been laid
Pieter
Cleppe
Commission
webpage on Brexit preparedness
https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparedness_en
IT
systems readiness
NAO:
The UK border: preparedness for EU exit update
https://www.nao.org.uk/report/the-uk-border-preparedness-for-eu-exit-update/
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/The-UK-border-preparedness-for-EU-exit-update.pdf
In
January 2019, HMRC decided that it would use CHIEF as the primary customs
system for EU trade in the event of ‘no deal’…. HMRC has successfully completed
its testing of CHIEF to ensure it will be able to handle 300 million customs
declarations each year. Work is still required…
NAO
on Civil Contingencies Secretariat’s Contingency preparations for exiting the
EU with no deal
https://www.nao.org.uk/report/contingency-preparations-for-exiting-the-eu-with-no-deal/
NAO
topical reports
https://www.nao.org.uk/search/pi_area/exiting-the-eu/type/report/
https://www.nao.org.uk/search/pi_area/european-union/type/report/
Katya
Adler, Europe Editor
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-47614151
The
draft summit conclusions suggest EU leaders are responding to Theresa May's
request for a short extension. They don't accept it can be until 30th June.
They say it can only be until 22nd May.
This
is not unexpected. It is because Theresa May says the UK will not be taking
part in the European elections. So in order to separate Brexit from those
elections, the short extension ends on 22nd May.
The
draft conclusions are conditional on Parliament approving the prime minister's
deal.
Later
page has timetable, including Commons recess from 5 Apr.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47660019
EU
leaders have agreed on a plan to delay the Article 50 process, postponing
Brexit beyond 29 March. The UK will be offered a delay until 22 May, if MPs
approve the withdrawal deal negotiated with the EU next week. If they do not,
the EU will back a shorter delay until 12 April, allowing the UK time to get
the deal through or to "indicate a way forward". The UK is due to
leave the EU in eight days, with or without a deal, if no extension is agreed.
European
Council (Article 50) conclusions, 21 March 2019
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/38744/21-euco-art50-conclusions-en.pdf
Brexit:
financial settlement update
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8039/CBP-8039.pdf
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8039
with
OBR estimates of the financial settlement
Prof.
Dr Franklin Dehousse, Professor in EU law at the University of Liège
Original
articles
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chaotic-deal-brexit-threatening-why-european-union-must-dehousse/
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/sun-tsu-brexit-how-brexiteers-turned-total-strategic-mess-dehousse
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/sun-tsu-brexit-ii-european-union-from-technical-myopia-dehousse
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/sun-tsu-brexit-iii-after-bad-strategic-choices-day-always-dehousse
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/eu-should-compromise-some-aspects-brexit-negotiation-cannot-dehousse
General
perceptions across set:
EU
violated its own rule book. Proposals are legally contestable.
Was
Commission legal service consulted for opinion? Reflects badly on Martin Selmayr.
EU
trying to paint permanent rules as temporary.
Withdrawal
agreement is about more than withdrawal; has 'future relationship' measures
EU
mistake to insist upon 'unamendable backstop'; some mistakes corrected
'Frankenstein'
agreement should have some WA (backstop) material moved into Political
Declaration.
Inconsistency
about trade matters – Free Trade Agreement, Geographical Indicators, customs
checks and backstop
The
UK cannot create conditions that will destabilise the EU while it leaves.
The
EU cannot impose conditions that will make the UK exit factually impossible, or
extremely difficult.
This
is very important for the EU and UK’s future, and also their future relationship.
Strategic
EU error not to ponder and consider, esp. over the future relationship
Parallel
with military: no nation ever benefited from prolonged warfare
EU
contradictions - saying 'Come back' while poisoning the future relationship
EU
negativity has benefited Brexiteers
EU
should have incentivised EEA
Brexit
too much to be done in one stage; feels EEA is a reasonable compromise for
short term
No
Deal would not save the EU; there will be significant financial damage
Approaching
mismanaged No Deal Brexit with no preparation
EU
double standard - EU allowed to demand things but not the UK.
Mistakes
over insisting upon 'indivisibility of 4 freedoms'
Why
not give UK Ukraine flexibility over FMOP?
Nigel
Moore on legality
https://campaignforanindependentbritain.org.uk/is-the-withdrawal-agreement-legal/
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/pulling-the-wool-the-pms-last-gasp-by-graham-gudgin/
However,
the Political Declaration states in article 23 that the future economic
relationship should ensure “ambitious customs arrangements that, in line with
the Parties’ objectives and principles above, build and improve on the single
customs territory provided for in the Withdrawal Agreement”.
If
the EU stuck to its guns at this point, and insisted that it was acting in good
faith in holding the UK to its intention to remain in a customs union, how
would the UK avoid moving into the Backstop and prevent the Backstop from
assuming permanence?
DER
SPIEGEL: Unfortunately, the political declaration regarding the future
relationship is rather vague and opaque....
[Sir
Ivan] Rogers: I think so. It's opaque because the British wanted it opaque
Commons
briefing: Future trade with the EU: Mutual recognition
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8384
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8384/CBP-8384.pdf
Commons
briefing: The European Economic Area
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8129
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8129/CBP-8129.pdf
UK,
EFTA and EEA continuity
Michael-James
Clifton is Chef de Cabinet, Chambers of Judge Bernd Hammermann, EFTA Court. All
views expressed are entirely personal.
Former
minister, George Eustice MP
Full
EFTA membership would take six to nine months to complete, but joining the
necessary surveillance and court agreements to make the EEA operable could be
agreed within three months.
...
We
have been arguing about Brexit solidly for over three years now and our system
cannot take another two years of this, especially if there is a long extension
to article 50. What is needed now is a way to secure early closure on this
debate and to expedite our departure from the EU.
....
The
actions of Parliament last week were a blow to the credibility of our
democracy. We have signalled to the world that we are too scared to leave the
EU without its permission, and we are about to send our Prime Minister to
Brussels on her hands and knees to beg for an extension.
However,
for those like me who voted to leave without a deal if necessary, it is no good
sobbing over the fact that we lost a line-out and that those who want to thwart
the referendum result are running away with the ball. We need to regroup and
get back in the game.
...
Don’t
we need the permission of the EU to do this? No. We would only need the
agreement of the EFTA states in order to join the EFTA pillar and, under
international law, that could not be unreasonably withheld. The EU is legally
obliged to recognise our existing EEA rights under the Vienna Convention.
But
hasn’t Norway said that it doesn’t want us to join? Norway has been reluctant
to get involved in the current brawl between the EU and the UK. It is also
reluctant to see us trample over EFTA on the way to a Canada-style agreement.
However, if we resolved that we were committed to EFTA for the long-term and
the EEA at least for the foreseeable future, that’s a different matter.
Dr
Lorand Bartels more generally argues in ‘The UK’s Status in the WTO after
Brexit’ (2016) that in nearly every case, a state succeeds to
rights/obligations of federations/unions.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2841747
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2849393_code396400.pdf?abstractid=2841747&mirid=1 (PDF)
https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/secondary-legislation/
In
an emergency, certain Acts can allow the government to use the made affirmative
procedure. This
brings
an SI into effect immediately and gives Parliament a set time to approve it
(normally 28 or 40
days).
It stops being law if Parliament does not approve the SI within that time.
Commons
briefing on Statutory Instruments
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06509
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06509/SN06509.pdf
EU
(Withdrawal) Act 2018
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/pdfs/ukpga_20180016_en.pdf
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/pdfs/ukpgaen_20180016_en.pdf
Lords
debate notes on ‘legal process’ for extension
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/LLN-2019-0036/LLN-2019-0036.pdf
Legality
of government tactics on use of statutory instrument for extension questioned
Sir
Richard Aikens
https://twitter.com/isaby/status/1110597233043537927
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/the-postponement-of-brexit-is-it-legal/
Debate
on 27 March, particularly contribution from Sir William Cash MP
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Oftuw54oOo
Pro-EU
commentator Philip Allott feels that the purpose of extending is not for a
genuine negotiation stated in the Treaty. The EU27 by their own admission at
European Council say that the Withdrawal Agreement is not for revising...
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/how-government-could-recover-its-brexit-hangover
Pieter
Cleppe
https://capx.co/renegotiation-is-the-eus-worst-option-except-for-all-the-others/
Christopher
Howarth upbeat on Brexit happening
https://brexitcentral.com/deal-no-deal-heres-brexit-cannot-stopped/
Derailing
Bills
https://services.parliament.uk/bills/#e
European
Union (Revocation of Notification of Withdrawal) Bill
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2017-2019/0306/19306.pdf
Barnier:
'May needs to go cross party'. Otherwise uses anon/unverifiable sources
Continuing
Labour policy contortions and gesture politics
Jeremy
Corbyn has refused to rule out seeking to revoke article 50 to prevent Britain
from sliding into a no-deal Brexit, as senior EU officials privately talked up
the possibility before a crunch summit in Brussels.
Speaking
outside the European commission headquarters in Brussels, the Labour leader
insisted his focus “at the moment” remained on trying to push the prime
minister into a soft Brexit
Corbyn
was holding talks with Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, and Martin
Selmayr, the European commission’s secretary general, before Theresa May’s
arrival at a leaders’ summit in Brussels on Thursday.
Labour
subsequently issued a statement saying cancelling Brexit was not their policy.
A
spokesperson said: “as we have always said, we respect the result of the
referendum and will do whatever is necessary to prevent a no deal outcome. We
do not believe that revoking Article 50 is in any way necessary.”
Selmayr
privately suggested this week that the UK would end up seeking to revoke
article 50 if the alternative was a no-deal Brexit.
Martin
Howe QC
Robert
Craig of Durham University Law School argues that any extension could be
requested and agreed to by the UK Government acting under the Royal
Prerogative.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47614074
If
MPs suspend or change the "standing orders" of Parliament, they could
get the Brexit deal back on the agenda. Secondly, the government could change
the proposition on offer.
…
The
former Attorney General Dominic Grieve has suggested that something
"substantially" different would be to ask Parliament to vote for the
deal subject to a referendum.
Speculation…
https://order-order.com/2019/03/20/may-rumours-swirling-eu-digs-brexit-extension-terms/
The
commentariat’s unfounded speculation that the UK could avoid taking part as
long as they left by the end of June falls flat again…
French
media are reporting that Emmanuel Macron is considering vetoing any extension
tomorrow if May can’t produce a “credible strategy” for getting to a deal….Whether
Macron is serious or this is just part of a good-cop bad-cop routine remains to
be seen. Donald Tusk has made no secret of his desire for the UK to hold a
second referendum and cancel Brexit. There is no doubt that the EU27 will use
any extension request to try to push the UK closer to one…
Previously,
Muscat has voiced strong support for a second referendum, saying at the
Salzburg Summit in September 2018, “There is a unanimous – or almost unanimous,
I would say – point of view around the table that we would like the almost
impossible to happen, that the UK has another referendum.”
Bercow
‘helping the Remoaners’
https://order-order.com/2019/03/19/16-times-bercow-threw-away-precedent/
In
a private message to Tory MPs, Brexit minister Chris Heaton-Harris suggested
the EU would exploit the chaos to demand a five-year delay to the UK’s
departure, ‘giving the Commons all the time in the world to steal Brexit’. He
added: ‘Game over.’
...
Neil
O’Brien MP accused the Speaker of double standards, pointing out that he had
allowed multiple votes on plans hatched by Remainers trying to block Mrs May’s
strategy.
Dr
Catherine Haddon
So
how can the Government respond? In the same evidence session, Natzler also
pointed to the simplest solution: if it is the will of House to vote again,
then the Government can explicitly set aside this rule in the business motion
that would tee up the third meaningful vote.
Brexit
Secretary, Stephen Barclay (09:27, 19 Mar)
What
has become very clear from the speaker’s ruling yesterday is, for my Brexit
colleagues, I think they can see that there is a growing risk of no Brexit
Barnier
PR on No Deal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47627744
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-19-1758_en.htm
Mr
Barnier also warned that UK MPs voting against "no deal" would not
prevent it from happening, saying that "everyone should now finalise all
preparations for a no-deal scenario".
On
the way in Michael Roth, Germany’s Europe minister, indicated that Berlin is
getting fed up with British indecision. Asked about Brexit, he told reporters: The
clock is ticking and time is running out.
[We
are] really exhausted by these negotiations. And I expect clear and precise
proposals [from] the British government why such an extension is necessary.
It
is not just a game. It is an extremely serious situation, not just for the
people in the United Kingdom, but for the people in the European Union. For my
government, the key priority is to prevent a no-deal Brexit ...
BBC
Political Editor, Katya Adler on ‘No Deal’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46339623
“the
EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier calls a non-orderly Brexit.
EU
leaders are hell-bent on avoiding that....
Even
if tariff-reduction was a big part of the plan, there are Non-Trade Barriers
(NTBs) that provide most of the hassle in trade. 'No Deal' would not adequately
address them.
Lord
Lamont
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8129463/theresa-may-brexit-maze-deal-norman-lamont/
Strictly
speaking there is no such thing as a no-deal Brexit.
Explainer
on UN and WTO context.
www.newalliance.org.uk/annex218.htm
UN
Charter 1945
http://www.un.org/en/documents/charter/index.shtml
(Article1)
2.
To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle
of equal rights and self-determination of peoples,
(Article2)
2.
All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits
resulting from membership, shall fulfil in good faith the obligations assumed
by them in accordance with the present Charter.
Agreed
interpretation via UN Resolution 2625, via the adoption of the Declaration on
Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Co-operation
among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
http://legal.un.org/avl/ha/dpilfrcscun/dpilfrcscun.html
"No
State may use or encourage the use of economic, political or other types or measures
to coerce another State in order to obtain from it the subordination of the
exercise of its sovereign rights or to secure from it advantages of any
kind."
Resolution
adopted text (PDF)
http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/2625(XXV)
WTO
Waiver, a get-out-of-jail card
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/glossary_e/waiver_e.htm
Waivers
and other exceptions
https://ecampus.wto.org/admin/files/Course_382/Module_537/ModuleDocuments/eWTO-M8-R1-E.pdf
WTO
Waiver via GATT Article 24 / Article XXIV
https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/regatt_e.htm#gatt
Legal
interpretations
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/gatt1994_art24_jur.pdf
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/gatt1994_art24_oth.pdf
https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/serv_e/gatsfacts1004_e.pdf (page 13)
"under
the WTO Agreement Governments may seek a temporary waiver from any obligation." - in the WTO
Agreement series, including for services, intellectual property, etc. – listed
on
https://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/legal_e.htm
Use
of GATT Article 24 questioned
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8397/CBP-8397.pdf
https://brexitfactbase.com/pdfs/BarfieldBrexitWTOArticle24.pdf
(Bartels,
see also previous section above)
Pascal
Lamy on WTO Waiver, free trade agreements
http://www.freetradeagreements.co.uk/projects/pascal-lamy/
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/pascal-lamy-way-forward-after-brexit
Q:
What about the role of the World Trade Organization? You were director-general
for eight years, you know it very well. Do you think that if the British were
forced to fall back on just WTO rules, is that easily done?
A:
I think it can be easily done, provided there is a bit of goodwill on all
sides. WTO lawyers can be reasonably pragmatic and if we agree that the main
thing is that trade should be hampered as little as possible,
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/
“The
EU is firmly committed to the promotion of open and fair trade with all its
trading partners.
Commitment
to "ambitious, balanced and comprehensive free trade agreements"
https://www.eu2017.ee/sites/default/files/2017-06/Trio%20programme.pdf
G20
Leaders' agreement (2016), supported by EU.
http://www.g20chn.org/English/Documents/Current/201609/t20160906_3395.html
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-16-2967_en.htm
...
commit to enhance an open world economy by working towards trade and investment
facilitation and liberalization. ... We reiterate our opposition to
protectionism on trade and investment in all its forms.”
WTO
Legal Base
The
EU is also an enthusiastic member of the World Trade Organization and is bound
by its rules. The WTO makes public its legal base and test cases in its
‘Analytic Index’. It is an established guide to the interpretation and
application of the WTO agreements.
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/ai17_e.htm
There
are binding interpretations on goals and obligations of trade treaties
(references 8, 9, 11, 13)
“arrangements
entered into by Members be reciprocal and mutually advantageous concessions
made by WTO Members should be interpreted so as to further the general
objective of the expansion of trade in goods and the substantial reduction of
tariffs… “security and predictability of ‘the reciprocal and mutually advantageous
arrangements directed to the substantial reduction of tariffs and other
barriers to trade’ is an object and purpose of the WTO Agreement
….
“[regional
trade agreements] the purpose of such agreements should be to facilitate trade
between the constituent territories and not to raise barriers to the trade of
other Members with such territories; and that in their formation or enlargement
the parties to them should to the greatest possible extent avoid creating
adverse effects on the trade of other Members;”
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/analytic_index_e/wto_agree_01_e.htm
[For
an alternative view of WTO rules predominating over EU rules (ref: SPS, TBT)
see also http://www.newalliance.org.uk/ref1018.htm ('Other international agreements' section))]
https://www.iiea.com/brexit/brexit-myths-and-realities-regarding-the-wto-option/
https://www.iiea.com/publication/brexit-myths-and-realities-regarding-the-wto-option/
In
this paper for the Institute of International and European Affairs, Michael
Daly, a former Chief in the WTO’s Trade Policies Review Division, explains the
processes that the UK must follow to disentangle itself from the EU and
establish its own schedules of commitments at the WTO, and the implications for
the UK of trading solely on the basis of WTO rules.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8656494/theresa-may-brexit-deal-house-of-commons-vote-3/
https://order-order.com/2019/03/18/trimble-uk-secured-substantive-changes-limit-backstop-impact/
https://metro.co.uk/2019/01/29/wetherspoon-workers-like-push-tim-martins-brexit-propaganda-8408260/
(Click to view a sample Wetherspoon News magazine cover,
Autumn 2017, clearly encouraging readers to “read both sides of the debate”)
Unnamed
senior government source in
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-eu-spy-chiefs-brand-13915848
quoted
by
A
secret EU report has painted a grim and worrying picture of life in Britain
after Brexit – with violence on the street and ‘instability’ for decades. The
report by intelligence officials also claims that there will be independence
referendums in Scotland and Northern Ireland within 18 months of Brexit. The
report, by senior intelligence officials, also warned there may be violence in
the event of ‘no deal’ or a second referendum.
Riots
will hit streets after Brexit and UK will be ‘unstable’ for years, EU report
warns
The
report by intelligence officials also claims that there will be independence
referendums in Scotland and Northern Ireland within 18 months of Brexit. The
report, by senior intelligence officials, also warned there may be violence in
the event of ‘no deal’ or a second referendum.
...
Yesterday,
it was revealed that the Civil Service is looking at the possible imposition of
martial law after a no-deal Brexit. An EU source told the Daily Mirror:
‘Analysis of the threat levels in Britain is being shared at the top of the EU
as we formulate policy for the years ahead.
‘The
assessment is that violence is almost inevitable no matter what.
“Companies
dropping like flies from Britain because of Brexit”
Incorrectly
mentions Dyson and Honda
https://metro.co.uk/2019/01/24/companies-dropping-like-flies-britain-brexit-8386695/
Unsporting
‘sport; interview with Jurgen Klopp
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47041871
Peter
Shilton
“Let’s
make it clear people want to have control of our own destiny instead of being
told what we have to abide by.” He added: “Just to be clear as some people seem
confused l am for Brexit!”
How
Brexit hit the pound in your pocket
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47212992
Honda
closure
Booker
- good comments (not paywalled)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47282603
(reader
comment from ‘Bill Stickers’)
The
BBC interviewed the most senior Honda executive outside of Japan. They tried
every single way to get him to say this was because of Brexit and he stated
every single time that this was because of a huge change away from diesel and
towards electric. The markets they were aiming at were Japan, the USA and
China.. Flat earth Remainers are desperate to blame everything on Brexit. They
are just not that bright.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47566898
The
apology from Mr Diess came after the German car giant Volkswagen said it would
cut 7,000 jobs, as it shifts its focus to electric cars, which require fewer
workers to build.
James
Woudhuysen, visiting professor of forecasting and innovation at London South
Bank University
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/02/25/the-car-industry-crisis-has-nothing-to-do-with-brexit/
The
EU’s regulators, national governments and city administrations are profoundly
hostile to the car.
That’s
the other main impulse behind Honda’s decision. For example, the EU’s general
court, part of the European Court of Justice, has upheld an anti-pollution
complaint brought by the cities of Brussels, Madrid and Paris. Deepening the
regulatory fallout from the Volkswagen scandal of 2015, it has insisted that
makers of diesel cars have until December to lower their emissions of nitrogen
oxides (NOx) from more than 160mg per km to 80mg. Even the European Commission
has joined car-makers in protesting that this deadline could bring a ‘huge hit’
to sales.
Larry
Elliott, Don't blame job losses at Jaguar Land Rover and Ford on Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/10/jaguar-land-rover-and-ford-to-axe-thousands-of-jobs
Ford
announced widespread cuts across its European operations on Thursday, although
large-scale job losses are not expected imminently in the UK. However, Ford’s
European president, Steven Armstrong, refused to guarantee there would be no
redundancies at the carmaker’s Dagenham and Bridgend engine plants.
...
Ford
is overhauling its European operations in an attempt to increase profit
margins, including shutting down lossmaking vehicle lines. The US carmaker is
to abandon the multivan market – vehicles with more than five seats – stop
manufacturing automatic transmissions in Bordeaux from August, review its
operations in Russia, and combine the headquarters of Ford UK and Ford Credit
to a site in Dunton, Essex.
Armstrong
said the manufacturer is not making redundancies as part of the consolidation
at Dunton.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47564225
In
January the firm confirmed it is cutting 4,500 jobs, with the substantial
majority coming from its 40,000 strong UK workforce....JLR is facing a number
of challenges at the moment, including a slump in demand for diesel cars and a
sales slowdown in China.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1059958/brexit-news-jaguar-land-rover-job-cuts-tata-motors
Analysts
have said up to 5,000 jobs must be cut in order for the carmaker to survive.
Robin Zhu, an analyst at Bernstein in Hong Kong who covers JLR and its parent
company, Tata Motors said: “It’s do or die at the moment.
“JLR
has been seriously mismanaged in recent years, with cost runaways, products
disappointing in the market, and hedging issues costing it billions.
“Meanwhile
there’s arguably been a lack of accountability in the management ranks.”
...
JLR
has already cut 1,000 roles at its Solihull plant, and slashed employees
working hours at other sites. Two years ago the firm – owned by India's Tata
Motors – insisted that its Slovakia plant would "complement" its UK operations.
But the car making giant said all production of the Discovery would be done in
the Eastern European country.
Roger
Godsiff, Labour MP for Birmingham Hall Green, told Express.co.uk in October:
“It seems quite clear to me that the owners of Jaguar Land Rover are seeking to
transfer a large part of their operations, possibly as a precursor to
transferring all their operations, to a low-wage part of the EU.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-bmw-idUKKBN16T2FA
BMW
said the UK would still be the main manufacturing base for the Mini.
https://order-order.com/2019/03/20/toyota-producing-new-hybrid-car-model-uk-despite-brexit/
Toyota
have just announced that they will begin producing a new generation of hybrid
cars at its factory in Derbyshire next year, despite the global car industry
downturn. Ford announced last week that they were cutting 5,000 jobs in
Germany. Brexit is not to blame for the car industry’s global woes
…
This
isn’t just good news for thousands of Derbyshire workers – the new hybrid cars
built for Suzuki will also use engines produced at Toyota’s Deeside plant in
Wales. All despite Brexit…
https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/psa-group-vauxhall-profit-peugeot-usa/
Peugeot,
Citroen and DS, meanwhile, have doubled profits in the UK since the Brexit vote
two years ago. Indeed, chairman Carlos Tavares isn’t worried about Brexit,
saying “Vauxhall is warm to the hearts of UK consumers. Maybe we are the ones
who have the best opportunity out of it”.
...
In
the summer of last year it was reported, to the surprise of many, that
Vauxhall/Opel was returning to profit under new PSA Peugeot/Citroen ownership.
Two
of the organisations which promoted marches in London for a second referendum
have received direct funding from the EU. European Alternatives received
€300,000 and the European Movement €350,000. (Imagine if the British Government
donated to French or German anti EU organisations and parties!)
…despite
the appalling state of TfL and Crossrail’s finances. Now Guido can reveal that
Sadiq [Khan] has also given over £20,000 of taxpayers’ cash to a lobby group
which has been campaigning for a second referendum. The Mayor’s accounts show
that Sadiq gave two payments of £10,717.82 for “community development” in
December last year to campaign group The3Million, which lobbies for EU citizens
in the UK. The3million are not some non-partisan community organisation, they
are a highly political pressure group…
...
The
group’s spokesman Axel Antoni told the Guardian in October: “It’s a very
specific demand: we want a final say for all. The UK is our home. We are part
of it. EU citizens didn’t even have a vote last time, we didn’t have a voice
last time.” The UK will still be their home after Brexit, the UK has
unilaterally guaranteed all EU citizens’ rights to stay, unlike the EU. Their
demand for a second referendum goes far beyond that into the world of partisan
politics. Sadiq having his own views on a second referendum is one thing,
spending taxpayers’ money promoting them is quite another…
...
It
comes as The Photographers’ Gallery in London was referred to the Charities
Commission over hosting an overtly anti-Brexit exhibition, despite being a
registered charity and receiving the vast majority of its funding from Arts
Council England, whose London Chair is an avid Remainer. Who was she appointed
by? Sadiq Khan…
'Five
million plus' petition to revoke Article 50 questioned. Apparently 90% of
popular email addresses used are connected with Google, Microsoft or Apple.
Official investigations of possible fiddling concentrate rather on the 10% from
'other' sources - this might contribute to a possible loophole, not least as
old Microsoft Hotmail accounts were notoriously compromised. Government
security procedures concentrate on the other 10% of email addresses.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-47668946
https://metro.co.uk/2019/03/22/revoke-article-50-petition-gamed-bots-unlikely-say-experts-8989273/
Could
bots be involved in the petition? Experts say it’s possible
Ilia
Kolochenko, CEO of [Swiss] security firm High-Tech Bridge, believed it could be
possible: ‘It’s relatively easy to influence such petitions with automated
bots. Even if sophisticated anti-automation and anti-bot systems can help, they
are not a perfect solution.
Fact
checkers Full Fact carefully examined their claim that one million people
attended their march on Saturday, finding that “experts in crowd estimation put
the number at between 312,000 and 400,000.” Again, barely a third of the dodgy
numbers the People’s Vote were putting out…
https://fullfact.org/europe/peoples-vote-march-count/
People's
Vote, the campaign group which organised the rally, said more than one million
people took part and it was one of the biggest protests in British history. The
group has previously been accused of trying to mislead politicians and voters
about its level of support. A debriefing document prepared by the Greater
London Authority put the number of attendees at October's People’s Vote rally
at 250,000 - significantly below the campaign group's claim that they were
joined by more than 700,000 people.
Comical
Brexageddon video, excellent Gary Lineker take
https://order-order.com/2019/03/12/titania-mcgraths-stark-brexit-warning/
https://twitter.com/i/status/1105444677657026566
James
Frayne, public Brexit important, attitudes towards No Deal
It might be boring them to death, but voters
still recognise Brexit to be the most important issue facing the country by
far. Ipsos-Mori’s February tracker poll, the most comprehensive issues tracker,
showed it’s by far people’s top concern. It’s what people are talking about and
will surely affect their voting habits in the medium term.
Former
ambassador to EU, Sir Ivan Rogers lecture and negotiation comments
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/european-institute/news/2019/jan/sir-ivan-rogers-brexit-lecture-text-and-video
Nimco
Ali told LBC: "I voted Remain and a lot of my peers who voted Remain are
very much about leaving now because we've seen how the EU is treating us right
now.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1070513/Brexit-news-Channel-4-debate-Jon-Snow-inbetweeners-Leave
The
Channel 4 News host appeared surprised during the Brexit Inbetweeners debate in
Leeds when he realised the room was filled with a high number of Brexit
supporters. The debate was organised to give voice to 18 to 20 years old who
did not have a vote in the 2016 Referendum on the basis 16-years-olds should be
given the right to vote in the UK. But viewers claimed the show
"backfired" on the news host when many of the young participants expressed
their views in favour of leaving the EU and against a second referendum.
http://www.cityam.com/272465/cable-stabilises-above-130-support-but-brexit-storm-far
There’s
too much information right now for traders to process, which is helping GBP/USD
keep its footing. For now, the only certainty for the pound is that uncertainty
remains the order of the day.
Prof
Stephen Bush, Technomica Papers
Lisbon
Treaty
Rebuttal
by Prof. Steven Peers to an item on the Lisbon Treaty that campaigners are
being asked to circulate widely. The latter is so inaccurate that it may well
be ‘black propaganda’, designed to discredit and embarrass pro-Brexit patriots.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1087258784001654784.html
Actual
text of Lisbon Treaty (2 documents, TEU and TFEU)
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/collection/eu-law/treaties/treaties-force.html
Big
NATO integrated defence practice manoeuvres planned for in UK. Coincidentally
from 30 March (originally seen as first full day of Brexit) to 11 April (subsequently
decision day over European Parliament elections, further extension, etc). Might
there be any 'events within the event' for the 'European pillar of NATO'.
EEAS
High Representative Federica Mogherini, a type of EU Foreign Secretary:
At
the same time, the EU has moved fast [on] security and defence. "We have
moved more in the last ten months than in the last ten years," said
Mogherini, with EU member states agreeing on an EU command centre for military
training and advisory missions....
The
European Union is a liberal empire, and it is about to fall, Wolfgang Streeck
(Max Planck Institut).
Will
Podmore’s new book out, ‘Brexit: the Road to Freedom’
https://brexitcentral.com/introducing-brexit-road-freedom/
Constructive
Brexit guidelines
www.newalliance.org.uk/annex218.htm
Resistance-specific
Glossary (PDF)
http://www.newalliance.org.uk/resglossary.pdf
Commons
Library Glossary on \EU
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7840
BBC
jargon-busting guide
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43470987
WTO
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/glossary_e/glossary_e.htm
EU
https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/glossary_en
http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/glossary/institutional_balance_en.htm
Disclaimer:
Quotes and articles referenced above are provided towards encouraging wider
debate. Inclusion does not necessarily mean endorsement, and readers are
encouraged to check the assumptions used and update their perspectives. Also
nothing should be construed as ‘legal advice’.
This
page originally compiled 22 March 2019, updated: 29 March 2019
